White women could be Donald Trump's downfall

(Image credit: Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

last updated 6 September 2016

Donald Trump's downfall in the 2016 election could be educated, white women voters. At least that is how it appears from the results of the most massive poll ever conducted by The Washington Post, which joined forces with SurveyMonkey to reach all 50 states and over 74,000 registered voters online. With individual state sample sizes ranging from 550 to over 5,000, the Post pinpointed where Trump is struggling: He holds what they called "an unprecedented deficit for a Republican among college-educated white voters, especially women."

In 2012, white voters with college degrees supported Republican nominee Mitt Romney over President Obama by 56-42 percent. Romney won with 59 percent among white men with college degrees and with 52 percent among white women with college degrees.So far in this campaign, [Hillary] Clinton has dramatically changed that equation. Among white college graduates, Clinton leads Trump in 31 of the 50 states, and the two are about even in six others. Trump leads among college-educated whites in just 13 states, all safe Republican states in recent elections. [The Washington Post]

Overall, Trump is looking pretty comfortable in the upper Midwest with edges in the battleground states of Ohio and Iowa, and is nipping at Clinton's heels in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. While states like Colorado have shown Clinton with a comfortable lead, a four-way race with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included has Clinton tied with Trump.

The buzziest news, though, is that Texas — traditionally unbreakable Republican turf — could conceivably go blue, with Clinton leading 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent. By comparison, President Obama lost the state by 16 points in 2012. Again, it is the women shaking things up: Trump limps in with poll numbers below 40 percent among Republican women in the Lone Star State.

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Read all the findings of the massive Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll here (and for a more visual breakdown, go here).

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Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.