Donald Trump's downfall in the 2016 election could be educated, white women voters. At least that is how it appears from the results of the most massive poll ever conducted by The Washington Post, which joined forces with SurveyMonkey to reach all 50 states and over 74,000 registered voters online. With individual state sample sizes ranging from 550 to over 5,000, the Post pinpointed where Trump is struggling: He holds what they called "an unprecedented deficit for a Republican among college-educated white voters, especially women."
In 2012, white voters with college degrees supported Republican nominee Mitt Romney over President Obama by 56-42 percent. Romney won with 59 percent among white men with college degrees and with 52 percent among white women with college degrees.So far in this campaign, [Hillary] Clinton has dramatically changed that equation. Among white college graduates, Clinton leads Trump in 31 of the 50 states, and the two are about even in six others. Trump leads among college-educated whites in just 13 states, all safe Republican states in recent elections. [The Washington Post]
Overall, Trump is looking pretty comfortable in the upper Midwest with edges in the battleground states of Ohio and Iowa, and is nipping at Clinton's heels in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. While states like Colorado have shown Clinton with a comfortable lead, a four-way race with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included has Clinton tied with Trump.
The buzziest news, though, is that Texas — traditionally unbreakable Republican turf — could conceivably go blue, with Clinton leading 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent. By comparison, President Obama lost the state by 16 points in 2012. Again, it is the women shaking things up: Trump limps in with poll numbers below 40 percent among Republican women in the Lone Star State.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Read all the findings of the massive Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll here (and for a more visual breakdown, go here).
-
The week’s best photosIn Pictures A drive in the desert, prayers with pigeons, and more
-
The Week Unwrapped: Will drought fuel global violence?Podcast Plus why did Trump pardon a drug-trafficking president? And are romantic comedies in terminal decline?
-
Crossword: December 5, 2025The daily crossword from The Week
-
Trump boosts gas cars in fuel economy rollbackspeed read Watering down fuel efficiency standards is another blow to former President Biden’s effort to boost electric vehicles
-
Hegseth’s Signal chat put troops in peril, probe findsSpeed Read The defense secretary risked the lives of military personnel and violated Pentagon rules, says new report
-
Trump pardons Texas Democratic congressmanspeed read Rep. Henry Cuellar was charged with accepting foreign bribes tied to Azerbaijan and Mexico
-
GOP wins tight House race in red Tennessee districtSpeed Read Republicans maintained their advantage in the House
-
Trump targets ‘garbage’ Somalis ahead of ICE raidsSpeed Read The Department of Homeland Security will launch an immigration operation targeting Somali immigrants in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area
-
Hegseth blames ‘fog of war’ for potential war crimespeed read ‘I did not personally see survivors,’ Hegseth said at a Cabinet meeting
-
Canada joins EU’s $170B SAFE defense fundspeed read This makes it the first non-European Union country in the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative
-
Appeals court disqualifies US Attorney Alina HabbaSpeed Read The former personal attorney to President Donald Trump has been unlawfully serving as US attorney for New Jersey, the ruling says
