White women could be Donald Trump's downfall


Donald Trump's downfall in the 2016 election could be educated, white women voters. At least that is how it appears from the results of the most massive poll ever conducted by The Washington Post, which joined forces with SurveyMonkey to reach all 50 states and over 74,000 registered voters online. With individual state sample sizes ranging from 550 to over 5,000, the Post pinpointed where Trump is struggling: He holds what they called "an unprecedented deficit for a Republican among college-educated white voters, especially women."
In 2012, white voters with college degrees supported Republican nominee Mitt Romney over President Obama by 56-42 percent. Romney won with 59 percent among white men with college degrees and with 52 percent among white women with college degrees.So far in this campaign, [Hillary] Clinton has dramatically changed that equation. Among white college graduates, Clinton leads Trump in 31 of the 50 states, and the two are about even in six others. Trump leads among college-educated whites in just 13 states, all safe Republican states in recent elections. [The Washington Post]
Overall, Trump is looking pretty comfortable in the upper Midwest with edges in the battleground states of Ohio and Iowa, and is nipping at Clinton's heels in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. While states like Colorado have shown Clinton with a comfortable lead, a four-way race with Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included has Clinton tied with Trump.
The buzziest news, though, is that Texas — traditionally unbreakable Republican turf — could conceivably go blue, with Clinton leading 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent. By comparison, President Obama lost the state by 16 points in 2012. Again, it is the women shaking things up: Trump limps in with poll numbers below 40 percent among Republican women in the Lone Star State.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Read all the findings of the massive Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll here (and for a more visual breakdown, go here).
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
How successful would Elon Musk's third party be?
Today's Big Question Musk has vowed to start a third party after falling out with Trump
-
Music reviews: Bruce Springsteen and Benson Boone
Feature "Tracks II: The Lost Albums" and "American Heart"
-
Why passkeys are the next frontier in digital security
A disruptive new technology promises to put passwords to bed forever — but not yet
-
Thai court suspends prime minister over leaked call
Speed Read Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended, pending an ethics investigation
-
Senate passes GOP megabill after Alaska side deal
The pivotal yes vote came from Sen. Lisa Murkowski, whose support was secured following negotiated side deals for her home state Alaska
-
Trump sues LA over immigration policies
Speed Read He is suing over the city's sanctuary law, claiming it prevents local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration authorities
-
Obama, Bush and Bono eulogize USAID on final day
Speed Read The US Agency for International Development, a humanitarian organization, has been gutted by the Trump administration
-
The last words and final moments of 40 presidents
The Explainer Some are eloquent quotes worthy of the holders of the highest office in the nation, and others... aren't
-
Senate advances GOP bill that costs more, cuts more
Speed Read The bill would make giant cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, leaving 11.8 million fewer people with health coverage
-
Canadian man dies in ICE custody
Speed Read A Canadian citizen with permanent US residency died at a federal detention center in Miami
-
GOP races to revise megabill after Senate rulings
Speed Read A Senate parliamentarian ruled that several changes to Medicaid included in Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" were not permissible