A new Washington Post/ABC News poll pegs President Obama's approval rating at an astonishing 58 percent, his highest marks since 2009, and that should be good news for the Democrat vying to replace him, Hillary Clinton. But it certainly doesn't guarantee a Clinton victory in November, says Gallup's Lydia Saad. In Gallup's polling, Obama's approval rating is a healthy 51 percent, but while similarly high approval ratings for Ronald Reagan probably boosted George H.W. Bush in his 1988 victory, "two second-term presidents with even higher job approval ratings — Bill Clinton in 2000 and Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1960 — each saw their party's candidate lose the election," Saad notes.
The metrics pollsters use to predict an incumbent's chances for re-election — approval rating, satisfaction with the direction of the country, and feelings about the economy — don't seem to work for non-incumbent elections. The main spoiler seems to be 2000, when Clinton was popular, the economy was booming, and Al Gore lost (though the 2000 election "requires a footnote because Gore won the popular vote by 0.5 percent but ended up losing the Electoral College," Saad says). But it's also true that the president's party has lost four of the last five open presidential races, suggesting the public likes change after eight years. Or Clinton could have a leg up because she has a higher favorability rating than Donald Trump. For more, read Saad's full historical analysis.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
The Spanish cop, 20 million euros and 13 tonnes of cocaineIn the Spotlight Óscar Sánchez Gil, Chief Inspector of Spain's Economic and Tax Crimes Unit, has been arrested for drug trafficking
-
5 hilarious cartoons about the rise and fall of Matt GaetzCartoons Artists take on age brackets, backbiting, and more
-
The future of XTalking Point Trump's ascendancy is reviving the platform's coffers, whether or not a merger is on the cards
-
Global court issues arrest warrant for NetanyahuSpeed Read The International Criminal Court issued warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who stand accused of war crimes
-
Gaetz bows out, Trump pivots to Pam BondiSpeed Read Gaetz withdrew from attorney generation consideration, making way for longtime Trump loyalist Pam Bondi
-
GOP's Mace seeks federal anti-trans bathroom banSpeed Read Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina has introduced legislation to ban transgender people from using federal facilities
-
Ukraine fires ATACMS, Russia ups hybrid warSpeed Read Ukraine shot U.S.-provided long-range missiles and Russia threatened retaliation
-
New York DA floats 4-year Trump sentencing freezeSpeed Read President-elect Donald Trump's sentencing is on hold, and his lawyers are pushing to dismiss the case while he's in office
-
Wyoming judge strikes down abortion, pill bansSpeed Read The judge said the laws — one of which was a first-in-the-nation prohibition on the use of medication to end pregnancy — violated the state's constitution
-
US sanctions Israeli West Bank settler groupSpeed Read The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on Amana, Israel's largest settlement development organization
-
Gaetz ethics report in limbo as sex allegations emergeSpeed Read A lawyer representing two women alleges that Matt Gaetz paid them for sex, and one witnessed him having sex with minor
