A lone 19-year-old black man in Illinois is single-handedly (and unknowingly) changing the standings of the presidential election, The New York Times has found. Due to the 19-year-old Trump supporter's inordinate weight in a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak panel, his poll answers are directly affecting national averages, like the one compiled by RealClearPolitics.
The New York Times' Upshot blog breaks it down:
In some polls, [the 19-year-old is] weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent.Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump's margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists.He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the USC/LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn't taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks. [The New York Times]
Surveys are typically weighted to account for differences in population demographics, like age, race, or sex; the USC/Los Angeles Times poll fluctuates so wildly because it weights very small groups and it also by past votes. Yet in the USC/Los Angeles Times poll's defense, it is "extremely and admirably transparent," which allowed for the critical breakdown done by The New York Times, which you can read here.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Continue reading for free
We hope you're enjoying The Week's refreshingly open-minded journalism.
Subscribed to The Week? Register your account with the same email as your subscription.
-
The daily gossip: Man arrested in connection with shooting of Tupac Shakur, an OceanGate movie is in the works, and moreFeature The daily gossip: September 29, 2023
-
What to expect from an El Niño winter
The Explainer Things might be different thanks to this well-known weather phenomenon
-
The week’s best photojournalism
In Pictures A steaming volcano, a giant crater and more
-
Dianne Feinstein, history-making Democratic US senator, dies at 90
The Explainer Her colleagues celebrate her legacy as a trailblazer who cleared the path for other women to follow
-
Will the cannabis banking bill get the Senate's green light?
Talking Point The SAFER Banking Act is advancing to the US Senate for the first time, clearing a major hurdle for legal cannabis businesses. Does it stand a chance?
-
Biden creates White House Office of Gun Violence Prevention
Speed Read The office will be led by Vice President Kamala Harris
-
Rishi Sunak lambasts China after allegations of spy in UK Parliament
Speed Read
-
Judge denies Mark Meadows' request to move Georgia case to federal court
Speed Read
-
Former New Mexico governor Bill Richardson dies at 75
Speed Read
-
Clarence Thomas officially discloses trips from billionaire GOP donor
Speed Read
-
Judge schedules Trump federal election plot trial for crowded March 2024
Speed Read
