How a single 19-year-old man in Illinois wildly skewed a major poll towards Trump


A lone 19-year-old black man in Illinois is single-handedly (and unknowingly) changing the standings of the presidential election, The New York Times has found. Due to the 19-year-old Trump supporter's inordinate weight in a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak panel, his poll answers are directly affecting national averages, like the one compiled by RealClearPolitics.
The New York Times' Upshot blog breaks it down:
In some polls, [the 19-year-old is] weighted as much as 30 times more than the average respondent, and as much as 300 times more than the least-weighted respondent.Alone, he has been enough to put Mr. Trump in double digits of support among black voters. He can improve Mr. Trump's margin by 1 point in the survey, even though he is one of around 3,000 panelists.He is also the reason Mrs. Clinton took the lead in the USC/LAT poll for the first time in a month on Wednesday. The poll includes only the last seven days of respondents, and he hasn't taken the poll since Oct. 4. Mrs. Clinton surged once he was out of the sample for the first time in several weeks. [The New York Times]
Surveys are typically weighted to account for differences in population demographics, like age, race, or sex; the USC/Los Angeles Times poll fluctuates so wildly because it weights very small groups and it also by past votes. Yet in the USC/Los Angeles Times poll's defense, it is "extremely and admirably transparent," which allowed for the critical breakdown done by The New York Times, which you can read here.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
Judge blocks Trump's asylum ban at US border
Speed Read The president violated federal law by shutting down the US-Mexico border to asylum seekers, said the ruling
-
Thai court suspends prime minister over leaked call
Speed Read Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended, pending an ethics investigation
-
Senate passes GOP megabill after Alaska side deal
The pivotal yes vote came from Sen. Lisa Murkowski, whose support was secured following negotiated side deals for her home state Alaska
-
Trump sues LA over immigration policies
Speed Read He is suing over the city's sanctuary law, claiming it prevents local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration authorities
-
Obama, Bush and Bono eulogize USAID on final day
Speed Read The US Agency for International Development, a humanitarian organization, has been gutted by the Trump administration
-
The last words and final moments of 40 presidents
The Explainer Some are eloquent quotes worthy of the holders of the highest office in the nation, and others... aren't
-
Senate advances GOP bill that costs more, cuts more
Speed Read The bill would make giant cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, leaving 11.8 million fewer people with health coverage
-
Canadian man dies in ICE custody
Speed Read A Canadian citizen with permanent US residency died at a federal detention center in Miami