Hillary Clinton's paths to victory in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are exceptionally slim in new CNN/ORC polls released Wednesday. The polls were taken from Oct. 27-Nov. 1, right in the midst of the unfolding drama over FBI Director James Comey's announcement that more emails had been found that may be pertinent to the Clinton email investigation.
Clinton leads in the historically blue state of Pennsylvania by just 4 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 44 percent. When the CNN/ORC poll was last taken there in late September, Clinton led by just 1 point, though the RealClearPolitics polling average still shows her 6 points ahead in the Keystone State.
In Florida, Clinton barely leads Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent — but this is a rosier forecast for Clinton than RealClearPolitics shows, as that average puts Trump ahead by 1 point. The last CNN/ORC poll taken in Florida, back in September, showed the two candidates in a dead heat, with Clinton leading 45 percent to 44 percent.
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Meanwhile, Trump has taken the lead in Nevada, 49 percent to 43 percent — a big shift from Clinton's 2-point lead there in mid-October. Moreover, Trump's new lead in the poll dwarfs his edge in the RealClearPolitics average, which shows him just 1.6 points ahead.
In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 5 points, the same lead he held in August when the poll was last taken. Trump's winning margin in the CNN/ORC poll is more than twice his 2.4-point lead in RealClearPolitics average.
NBC's Benjy Sarlin argues it's hard to tell if the new numbers are just a "low point" for Clinton, or whether they're truly a "new normal," given the data was collected right after Comey's surprise announcement. CNN conducted the polls via telephone, and each has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points among likely voters. The Pennsylvania poll surveyed 799 likely voters, the Florida poll surveyed 773, the Nevada poll surveyed 790, and the Arizona poll surveyed 769.
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