New polls of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Florida bear bad news for Clinton

Hillary Clinton's paths to victory in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are exceptionally slim in new CNN/ORC polls released Wednesday. The polls were taken from Oct. 27-Nov. 1, right in the midst of the unfolding drama over FBI Director James Comey's announcement that more emails had been found that may be pertinent to the Clinton email investigation.
Clinton leads in the historically blue state of Pennsylvania by just 4 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 44 percent. When the CNN/ORC poll was last taken there in late September, Clinton led by just 1 point, though the RealClearPolitics polling average still shows her 6 points ahead in the Keystone State.
In Florida, Clinton barely leads Trump, 49 percent to 47 percent — but this is a rosier forecast for Clinton than RealClearPolitics shows, as that average puts Trump ahead by 1 point. The last CNN/ORC poll taken in Florida, back in September, showed the two candidates in a dead heat, with Clinton leading 45 percent to 44 percent.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Meanwhile, Trump has taken the lead in Nevada, 49 percent to 43 percent — a big shift from Clinton's 2-point lead there in mid-October. Moreover, Trump's new lead in the poll dwarfs his edge in the RealClearPolitics average, which shows him just 1.6 points ahead.
In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 5 points, the same lead he held in August when the poll was last taken. Trump's winning margin in the CNN/ORC poll is more than twice his 2.4-point lead in RealClearPolitics average.
NBC's Benjy Sarlin argues it's hard to tell if the new numbers are just a "low point" for Clinton, or whether they're truly a "new normal," given the data was collected right after Comey's surprise announcement. CNN conducted the polls via telephone, and each has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points among likely voters. The Pennsylvania poll surveyed 799 likely voters, the Florida poll surveyed 773, the Nevada poll surveyed 790, and the Arizona poll surveyed 769.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
5 inexcusably hilarious cartoons about Ghislaine Maxwell angling for a pardon
Cartoons Artists take on the circle of life, Ghislaine's Island, and more
-
Ozzy Osbourne obituary: heavy metal wildman and lovable reality TV dad
In the Spotlight For Osbourne, metal was 'not the music of hell but rather the music of Earth, not a fantasy but a survival guide'
-
Sudoku medium: August 2, 2025
The Week's daily medium sudoku puzzle
-
Trump revives K-12 Presidential Fitness Test
Speed Read The Obama administration phased the test out in 2012, replacing it with a program focused on overall health rather than standardized benchmarks
-
El Salvador scraps term limits, boosting Nayib Bukele
Speed Read New constitutional changes will allow presidents to seek reelection an indefinite number of times
-
Trump assigns tariffs, delays all except on Canada
Speed Read A 35% tariff on many Canadian goods has gone into effect
-
Harris rules out run for California governor
Speed Read The 2024 Democratic presidential nominee ended months of speculation about her plans for the contest
-
Trump sets new tariff rates as deadline nears
Speed Read New tariff rates for South Korea, Brazil and India announced
-
Ghislaine Maxwell: angling for a Trump pardon
Talking Point Convicted sex trafficker's testimony could shed new light on president's links to Jeffrey Epstein
-
Senate confirms Trump loyalist Bove to top court
Speed Read The president's former criminal defense lawyer was narrowly approved to earn a lifetime seat
-
Ghislaine Maxwell offers testimony for immunity
Speed Read The convicted sex trafficker offered to testify to Congress about her relationship with late boyfriend Jeffrey Epstein