The 2018 election is shaping up to be a referendum on Trump

Voters are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the 2018 midterm elections, and to an unprecedented degree, they have President Trump and partisan control of Congress in mind, according to a Pew Research Center survey released Wednesday. The numbers favor the Democrats, who have a 5-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot (48 percent to 43 percent) and voter enthusiasm (55 percent to 50 percent), but Republicans are almost as fired up, pointing to a close race. And Trump is a bigger factor than in any midterm since Pew first started asking during Ronald Reagan's first term — 34 percent of registered voters say they will essentially be voting against Trump while 26 percent will be voting for Trump, both historically high numbers.

"Trump is, on balance, a more negative than positive factor," said Carroll Doherty, Pew's director of political research. "But he is motivating about half of the voters in his own party." At the same time, Doherty said, "This is a different midterm than the ones in 2006, 2010, and 2014. In those midterms, you had one party that was more enthusiastic." This year, 51 percent of all voters are more enthusiastic than usual about casting their ballot, and 68 percent of registered voters say party control of Congress will be a factor for them this year, Pew's biggest recorded midterms number since 1998.

The poll shows that "the Democratic wave is building," Politico says, "but this year's Democratic wave may be crashing against a well-fortified GOP wall." The survey was conducted June 5-12 among 2,002 adults and 1,608 registered voters, with a margin of error of ±2.9 points for registered voters. You can find more demography and other data points at Pew.

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