Sen. Ted Cruz's lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke keeps shrinking


It's three months before the 2018 midterms, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is seeing his lead over Democratic challenger Rep. Beto O'Rourke (Texas) steadily shrinking, according to two polls released Wednesday. A new Quinnipiac poll gave Cruz a 6-point advantage over O'Rourke, 49 percent to 43 percent, but that was a notable shift from the previous Quinnipiac poll, which gave Cruz an 11-point lead. A few hours before Quinnipiac released its survey, Texas Lyceum released a poll showing Cruz and O'Rourke neck-and-neck, 41 percent to 39 percent, well within the poll's 4.67-point margin of error.
"Cruz has a slight, by no means overwhelming, lead," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "O'Rourke has done a good job making the race competitive. With three months until Election Day, he is clearly in contention. A Democratic victory in the Lone Star state would be a serious blow to GOP hopes of keeping their U.S. Senate majority." A close race in Texas may seem unexpected, and it is, but O'Rourke "continues to nip at Cruz's heels" because he's "a strong Democratic challenger raising prolific sums of money and tons of earned media," said Lyceum's Josh Blank, adding, "it's a long way to go until Election Day."
Quinnipiac conducted its phone poll of 1,119 Texas voters July 26-31, and its margin of error is ±3.5 percentage points. Lyceum's poll was conducted by phone among a randomly selected sample of adult Texans. In the RealClearPolitics average, Cruz holds a 6.5-point lead over O'Rourke.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
The mounting tensions between Thailand and Cambodia
Long-running border disputes are at a decade high, as protesters in Thailand demand the prime minister's resignation
-
The unravelling of 'trolls' paradise' Tattle Life
In the Spotlight Unmasking of founder sends shockwaves through toxic gossip forum
-
Codeword: June 30, 2025
The Week's daily codeword puzzle
-
Canadian man dies in ICE custody
Speed Read A Canadian citizen with permanent US residency died at a federal detention center in Miami
-
GOP races to revise megabill after Senate rulings
Speed Read A Senate parliamentarian ruled that several changes to Medicaid included in Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" were not permissible
-
Supreme Court lets states ax Planned Parenthood funds
Speed Read The court ruled that Planned Parenthood cannot sue South Carolina over the state's effort to deny it funding
-
Trump plans Iran talks, insists nuke threat gone
Speed Read 'The war is done' and 'we destroyed the nuclear,' said President Trump
-
Trump embraces NATO after budget vow, charm offensive
Speed Read The president reversed course on his longstanding skepticism of the trans-Atlantic military alliance
-
Trump judge pick told DOJ to defy courts, lawyer says
Speed Read Emil Bove, a top Justice Department official nominated by Trump for a lifetime seat, stands accused of encouraging government lawyers to mislead the courts and defy judicial orders
-
Mamdani upsets Cuomo in NYC mayoral primary
Speed Read Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani beat out Andrew Cuomo in New York City's Democratic mayoral primary
-
Supreme Court clears third-country deportations
Speed Read The court allowed Trump to temporarily resume deporting migrants to countries they aren't from