Scandals hurt politicians' chances — but not as much as you'd think

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published 2 October 2018

A scandal-plagued politician may not exactly thrill voters — but very possibly will win their votes anyway, a new FiveThirtyEight analysis shows.

While scandal — defined here as "a credible accusation of objective criminal or ethical wrongdoing, such as embezzlement or adultery" — does lower a candidate's support by about 6 to 9 percent, the incumbent's advantage and simple partisanship are often enough to ensure election anyway.

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In all but one case, the forecast results match the partisan lean of the district. "Even if our tolerance for scandal has stayed the same," FiveThirtyEight notes, "it is possible that a more partisan electorate might be more welcoming to a politician under the magnifying glass."

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Bonnie Kristian was a deputy editor and acting editor-in-chief of TheWeek.com. She is a columnist at Christianity Today and author of Untrustworthy: The Knowledge Crisis Breaking Our Brains, Polluting Our Politics, and Corrupting Christian Community (forthcoming 2022) and A Flexible Faith: Rethinking What It Means to Follow Jesus Today (2018). Her writing has also appeared at Time Magazine, CNN, USA Today, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, and The American Conservative, among other outlets.