Democrats have a 17-point lead in congressional preference, thanks to dislike-both-sides voters, poll finds


The idea of a "blue wave" Nov. 6 has become something of a hackneyed punch line, thanks to overuse and also the Democrats' receding odds of flipping the Senate. But a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released Monday showed Democrats with a wavelike 17-point advantage over Republicans on which party likely voters say they'll cast their ballot for next week. The 57 percent to 40 percent result represents a 4-point shift toward Democrats from a week earlier. The RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats with a smaller 7.6-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.
The eye-catching 17-point lead "may partly reflect timing," the Los Angeles Times notes. "The final two days of the poll coincided with the arrest on Friday of a Florida man on charges of sending explosive devices to prominent Democrats and critics of President Trump, and the killing on Saturday of 11 people at a synagogue in Pittsburgh." But Republicans are pouring money into once-safe House races, and the rise in support for Democrats "stemmed from small shifts among several groups of voters," not just one segment of the electorate, the Times adds. The decisive group, however, could be the "'hold your nose and vote' brigade" that backed Trump in 2016 but "overwhelmingly favored the Democrats" this election.
In 2016, these "double negative" voters — who disliked the leaders of both parties — were mostly Republicans, but this year they are more often independent-leaning women, the Times says, according to the poll. Democrats also led Republicans by a narrower 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent, in a separate measure of how likely voters were to actually cast their ballot this year.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll surveyed 3,453 registered voters, 2,350 of whom were deemed likely to vote and 577 who already voted, Oct. 21-27. The margin of error was ±2 percentage points.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Doctors sound the alarm about insurance company ‘downcoding’
The Explainer ‘It’s blatantly disrespectful,’ one doctor said
-
Courts deal setbacks to Trump’s Chicago operations
Speed Read President Donald Trump cannot deploy the National Guard in Illinois
-
‘The illusion of wealth can encourage people to take on more debt’
instant opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
Courts deal setbacks to Trump’s Chicago operations
Speed Read President Donald Trump cannot deploy the National Guard in Illinois
-
Pentagon reporters turn in badges after refusing rules
Speed Read They refused to sign a restrictive new press policy imposed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
-
Supreme Court points to gutting Voting Rights Act
speed read States would no longer be required to consider race when drawing congressional maps
-
Trump says he authorized covert CIA ops in Venezuela
Speed Read He is also considering military strikes inside the country
-
‘Vile, racist’ leaked chats roil Young Republicans
Speed Read Leaders of Young Republican groups made racist, antisemitic and violent comments in private chats
-
Trump ties $20B Argentina bailout to Milei votes
speed read Trump will boost Argentina’s economy — if the country’s right-wing president wins upcoming elections
-
News organizations reject Pentagon restrictions
Speed Read The proposed policy is Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s latest move to limit press access at the Pentagon
-
Trump declares end to Gaza war, ‘dawn’ of new Mideast
Speed Read Hamas freed the final 20 living Israeli hostages and Israel released thousands of Palestinian detainees