Democrats have a 17-point lead in congressional preference, thanks to dislike-both-sides voters, poll finds

The idea of a "blue wave" Nov. 6 has become something of a hackneyed punch line, thanks to overuse and also the Democrats' receding odds of flipping the Senate. But a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released Monday showed Democrats with a wavelike 17-point advantage over Republicans on which party likely voters say they'll cast their ballot for next week. The 57 percent to 40 percent result represents a 4-point shift toward Democrats from a week earlier. The RealClearPolitics average shows Democrats with a smaller 7.6-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.

The eye-catching 17-point lead "may partly reflect timing," the Los Angeles Times notes. "The final two days of the poll coincided with the arrest on Friday of a Florida man on charges of sending explosive devices to prominent Democrats and critics of President Trump, and the killing on Saturday of 11 people at a synagogue in Pittsburgh." But Republicans are pouring money into once-safe House races, and the rise in support for Democrats "stemmed from small shifts among several groups of voters," not just one segment of the electorate, the Times adds. The decisive group, however, could be the "'hold your nose and vote' brigade" that backed Trump in 2016 but "overwhelmingly favored the Democrats" this election.

In 2016, these "double negative" voters — who disliked the leaders of both parties — were mostly Republicans, but this year they are more often independent-leaning women, the Times says, according to the poll. Democrats also led Republicans by a narrower 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent, in a separate measure of how likely voters were to actually cast their ballot this year.

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The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll surveyed 3,453 registered voters, 2,350 of whom were deemed likely to vote and 577 who already voted, Oct. 21-27. The margin of error was ±2 percentage points.