Poll: 4 in 10 voters won't pick Trump in 2020, and few want an old person or a socialist

President Trump is competitive in 2020 but there are flashing yellow lights, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released Sunday. Forty-one percent of registered voters said they would definitely or likely vote for Trump next year and 48 percent said they will definitely or likely vote for his Democratic challenger. Trump's approval rating ticked up to 46 percent, from 43 percent in January, however, and he retains a strong 88 percent approval from Republican voters. "It's a 45-55 against the president at this stage of the game," Democratic pollster Peter Hart told NBC News.

Trump won't face a generic Democrat, of course, and Democrats and the general public broadly agree on the qualities they want in the next president. The poll asked about 11 presidential characteristics, and the ones voters were most enthusiastic about or comfortable with were an African American (87 percent), white man (86 percent), woman (84 percent), gay or lesbian (68 percent), and an independent (60 percent). Least popular? A Muslim (49 percent — up from 32 percent in 2015), a person over 75 (37 percent), and a socialist (25 percent). Democrats were a little more enthusiastic about a socialist (45 percent) but not about a candidate over 75 (33 percent).

Republican pollster Bill McInturff told Chuck Todd on Sunday's Meet the Press that economic optimism and rising approval mean "the president's in the ballgame," pointing also to the 38 percent of voters so fed up they think the U.S. needs a third party — a post-1995 high. Democratic pollster Fred Yang said Trump "has to do everything to win it, and it may not be enough," noting that Trump's inability or unwillingness to expand his base of support may prove fatal for a president elected with 46 percent of the vote, especially if 2020 is a two-way race.

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The WSJ/NBC News poll was conducted Feb. 24-27 among 900 adults, including 720 registered voters, about half by cellphone. The overall margin of error is ±3.3 percentage points, ±3.7 points for registered voters, ±6.3 points for Democratic primary voters, and ±6.8 points for GOP primary voters.