A Democrat might actually win a red North Carolina congressional district in 2 weeks, despite Trump's visit

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last updated 30 August 2019

New internal polling in next month's special election in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District shows that either Democrat Dan McCready or Republican Dan Bishop could win, Politico reports. GOP polling has Bishop up 2-4 percentage points, which marks an improvement, while Democrats says their internal polling has McCready up 1 point, with some "whispering the trend lines are in their direction," Politico reports. President Trump, who won the district by nearly 12 points in 2016, is going to hold a rally for Bishop the night before the Sept. 10 election.

Widely seen as a bellwether for the 2020 election, the race has attracted plenty of money. The National Republican Campaign Committee, Club for Growth, and Congressional Leadership Fund have poured nearly $6 million into the race, while Bishop's campaign has spent $1.7 million. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC have put up about $1 million; McCready has spent $4.7 million.

Republicans have held the seat since 1963, but McCready lost by just 905 votes in 2018 — until a new election was called due to absentee ballot fraud by his former GOP opponent's campaign. Because McCready ran for the seat just last year, "he has a lot of momentum and recognition," Politico notes. Still, a Democratic win "would be a very big deal. Combine that with the wave of Republican retirements — and the expectation for more after the recess — and Republicans are going to have a tough time explaining their current political fortunes. Republicans could easily still pull this thing out."

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Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.