Biden takes an overwhelming lead in FiveThirtyEight's primary prediction model

(Image credit: Getty Images)

last updated 6 March 2020

The Democratic nomination is pretty much settled, at least in FiveThirtyEight's eyes.

In its first update of its prediction model since Super Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gives former Vice President Joe Biden an 88 percent chance of getting the majority of delegates he needs to win the Democratic nomination. The once-frontrunning possibility of a contested convention has fallen to 10 percent, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has fallen to a distant two percent.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver does advise taking the forecast with "a bit of caution" until some more post-Super Tuesday polling comes in. After all, results from that night and most polls that have come out in the few days after have included candidates who have since dropped out of the race. Some states also haven't even finished counting all their votes and finalizing results, and the Super Tuesday results themselves could influence voters in upcoming polls, Silver also notes.

Explore More

Kathryn is a graduate of Syracuse University, with degrees in magazine journalism and information technology, along with hours to earn another degree after working at SU's independent paper The Daily Orange. She's currently recovering from a horse addiction while living in New York City, and likes to share her extremely dry sense of humor on Twitter.

Subscribe to The Week

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox