Biden takes an overwhelming lead in FiveThirtyEight's primary prediction model
The Democratic nomination is pretty much settled, at least in FiveThirtyEight's eyes.
In its first update of its prediction model since Super Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gives former Vice President Joe Biden an 88 percent chance of getting the majority of delegates he needs to win the Democratic nomination. The once-frontrunning possibility of a contested convention has fallen to 10 percent, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has fallen to a distant two percent.
Biden had very slim chances of earning the primary outright before Super Tuesday. But winning 14 states and surpassing Sanders in the delegate count has shot him to the biggest lead any candidate has seen so far in the race. When looking at FiveThirtyEight's prediction of winning just a plurality of the delegates and forcing a contested convention, Biden's chances rise even higher to 94 percent.
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FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver does advise taking the forecast with "a bit of caution" until some more post-Super Tuesday polling comes in. After all, results from that night and most polls that have come out in the few days after have included candidates who have since dropped out of the race. Some states also haven't even finished counting all their votes and finalizing results, and the Super Tuesday results themselves could influence voters in upcoming polls, Silver also notes.
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