Iowa GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is in a surprisingly competitive re-election battle


Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) was not on the list of vulnerable incumbents all that long ago, but a Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend has her trailing new Democratic opponent Theresa Greenfield by 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. Ernst has never fallen behind a Democratic opponent since her winning 2014 campaign, said J. Ann Selzer, the highly regarded pollster who conducted the survey. "Symbolically, that's certainly meaningful, even if Theresa Greenfield's lead is not commanding."
Ernst's job approval rating began slipping earlier this year, the Register notes, though it has risen to 49 percent from 47 percent in March. There is the predictable split of rural and white evangelical voters favoring Ernst while urban and non-religious voters back Greenfield, but also independents currently back Greenfield 42 percent to 38 percent. There is a wide gender split, but interestingly, it increases among voters with less formal education: White men without a college degree support Ernst, 59 percent to 30 percent, while white women without a college degree pick Greenfield 60 percent to 29 percent.
A separate poll, conducted by Civiqs for Daily Kos, also found Greenfield leading by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, even as President Trump and his Democratic opponent Joe Biden are tied at 46 percent each. Trump won Iowa by 9 points in 2016, but Democrats flipped two of Iowa's four House seats in the 2018 midterms. Democrats would need to flip a net four GOP seats to take control of the Senate.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The Des Moines Register poll was conducted June 7-10 among 674 likely voters, with a margin or error of ±3.8 percentage points. The Daily Kos/Civiqs poll was conducted June 6-8 among 865 registered voters in Iowa, and its margin of error is ±3.7 points.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
The Week Unwrapped: How did Japan become a space superpower?
Podcast Plus, why on earth are Labubu dolls so popular? Will buy-now-pay-later cause a new financial crisis?
-
The week's best photos
In Pictures A tomato fight, painting behind bars, and more
-
Mountainhead: Jesse Armstrong's tech bro satire sparkles with 'weapons-grade zingers'
The Week Recommends The Succession creator's first feature film lacks the hit TV show's 'dramatic richness' – but makes for a horribly gripping watch
-
Trump hits Africa, Middle East with new travel ban
Speed Read The travel ban bars visitors from 12 countries and restricts entry from seven
-
Elon Musk slams Trump's 'pork-filled' signature bill
speed read 'Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong,' Musk posted on X
-
Depleted FEMA struggling as hurricane season begins
speed read FEMA has lost a third of its workforce amid DOGE cuts enforced by President Donald Trump
-
White House tackles fake citations in MAHA report
speed read A federal government public health report spearheaded by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was rife with false citations
-
Judge blocks push to bar Harvard foreign students
speed read Judge Allison Burroughs sided with Harvard against the Trump administration's attempt to block the admittance of international students
-
Trump's trade war whipsawed by court rulings
Speed Read A series of court rulings over Trump's tariffs renders the future of US trade policy uncertain
-
Elon Musk departs Trump administration
speed read The former DOGE head says he is ending his government work to spend more time on his companies
-
Trump taps ex-personal lawyer for appeals court
speed read The president has nominated Emil Bove, his former criminal defense lawyer, to be a federal judge