Iowa GOP Sen. Joni Ernst is in a surprisingly competitive re-election battle

Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) was not on the list of vulnerable incumbents all that long ago, but a Des Moines Register poll released over the weekend has her trailing new Democratic opponent Theresa Greenfield by 3 percentage points, 46 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. Ernst has never fallen behind a Democratic opponent since her winning 2014 campaign, said J. Ann Selzer, the highly regarded pollster who conducted the survey. "Symbolically, that's certainly meaningful, even if Theresa Greenfield's lead is not commanding."

Ernst's job approval rating began slipping earlier this year, the Register notes, though it has risen to 49 percent from 47 percent in March. There is the predictable split of rural and white evangelical voters favoring Ernst while urban and non-religious voters back Greenfield, but also independents currently back Greenfield 42 percent to 38 percent. There is a wide gender split, but interestingly, it increases among voters with less formal education: White men without a college degree support Ernst, 59 percent to 30 percent, while white women without a college degree pick Greenfield 60 percent to 29 percent.

A separate poll, conducted by Civiqs for Daily Kos, also found Greenfield leading by 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent, even as President Trump and his Democratic opponent Joe Biden are tied at 46 percent each. Trump won Iowa by 9 points in 2016, but Democrats flipped two of Iowa's four House seats in the 2018 midterms. Democrats would need to flip a net four GOP seats to take control of the Senate.

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The Des Moines Register poll was conducted June 7-10 among 674 likely voters, with a margin or error of ±3.8 percentage points. The Daily Kos/Civiqs poll was conducted June 6-8 among 865 registered voters in Iowa, and its margin of error is ±3.7 points.