2 new post-RNC polls show Biden with a lead of 7-8 points
Two reputable national polls released Wednesday suggest different trajectories for the presidential race, but agree on where it stands at the end of both main political conventions, as the start of the final sprint to Nov. 3. A poll from Grinnell College and Selzer & Co. shows Democrat Joe Biden with an 8-percentage-point national lead over President Trump, 49 percent to 41 percent — an improvement from Biden's 4-point lead in March. A Suffolk University/USA Today poll shows Biden up by 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent, which is much narrower than his 12-point advantage in June.
"Beyond the overall 8-point advantage, this poll shows some areas of underlying strength for the former vice president," said pollster J. Ann Selzer. "Biden holds a wide lead with moderates, 55-33 percent, who are a plurality of the electorate; he benefits from a 10-point lead among independents, who do not lean toward any political party, 44-34 percent." Biden also has a 2-to-1 lead over Trump among suburban women, 64 percent to 31 percent, while Trump flips those numbers among white men without college degrees.
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk Political Research Center, gauged that "Biden is no better off at this point" than Hillary Clinton was in 2016. "Hillary was more polarizing and less likable than Biden in terms of the favorable/unfavorable ratings," he said. "However, Clinton had more enthusiasm than Biden does today, which makes the analysis a bit dicey." Clinton went on to win the popular vote by nearly 3 million ballots but lost the Electoral College. If the election were held today, though, Biden would win both, Selzer projected.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The Grinnell/Selzer poll interviewed 827 likely voters by phone Aug. 26-30, and its margin of error is ±3.4 percentage points. The USA Today/Suffolk poll reached 1,000 registered voters by phone Aug. 28-31, and it has a margin of error of ±3.1 points. RealClearPolitics shows Biden with an average 6.5-point lead, 49.6 percent to 43.1 percent, while FiveThirtyEight has Biden up 7.3 points, 50.5 percent to 43.2 percent. Polls typical tighten as the election nears.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
'Virtual prisons': how tech could let offenders serve time at home
Under The Radar New technology offers opportunities to address the jails crisis but does it 'miss the point'?
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
The Week contest: Airport goodbyes
Puzzles and Quizzes
By The Week US Published
-
'We shouldn't be surprised that crypto is back'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
'Empowered' Steve Bannon released from prison
Speed Read Bannon was set free a week before Election Day and quickly returned to his right-wing podcast to promote Trump
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Canada accuses top Modi ally of directing Sikh attacks
Speed Read Indian Home Minister Amit Shah was allegedly behind a campaign of violence and intimidation targeting Sikh separatists
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Harris makes closing case in huge rally at DC's Ellipse
Speed Read The Democratic nominee asked voters to "turn the page" on Trump's "division" and "chaos"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'I am not a Nazi,' Trump says amid MSG rally fallout
Speed Read Trump and his campaign are attempting to stem the fallout from comments made by speakers at Sunday's rally
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Ballot drop boxes set on fire in Oregon, Washington
Speed Read Hundreds of submitted ballots were destroyed in Vancouver, Washington
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Israel votes to ban UN agency for Palestinians
Speed Read UNRWA provides food, medical care and other humanitarian assistance to Palestine
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Elon Musk is in regular contact with Putin, WSJ says
Speed Read The Tesla founder has been increasingly involved in Donald Trump's presidential campaign
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published