September 24, 2020

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading President Trump by more than 7 percentage points in national polling averages, but as Trump showed in 2016, winning the Electoral College is what gets you elected. Well, "Trump is on the defensive in three red states he carried in 2016," The New York Times reported Thursday morning, unveiling new Times/Sienna College polls of likely voters in Iowa, Georgia, and Texas.

Thanks to "a wall of opposition from women," the Times reports, Trump trails Biden by 3 points in Iowa, is tied with him in Georgia, and is ahead by 3 points in Texas, and the Democrats are competitive in those states' Senate races as well.

Biden is beating Trump among women by 14 points in Iowa, 10 points in Georgia, and 8 points in Texas. Trump leads among men in all three states, but Biden has "sharply narrowed" Trump's advantage among men "while improving on Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead with women in Texas and Iowa," the Times reports. And "the overwhelming majority of voters — about nine in every 10 in all three states — say they have definitely made up their minds about whom to vote for, leaving relatively little room for late developments to shift the overarching shape of the race."

The Times/Sienna poll was conducted via phone among likely voters Sept. 16-22 and its margin of sampling error is ± 4 percentage points for Texas and ± 5 points in Georgia and Iowa. The results are mostly better for Biden than in polling averages, where Trump leads by 0.9 points (FiveThirtyEight) or 1.2 points (RealClearPolitics) in Georgia, 0.4 points (FiveThirtyEight) or 1.4 points (RCP) in Iowa, and 1 point (FiveThirtyEigth) or 2.3 points (RCP) in Texas. Peter Weber

5:29 p.m.

There's a chance President Trump's pardon of Michael Flynn could backfire some day.

Trump on Wednesday pardoned Flynn, his first national security adviser. In 2017, Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his contact with former Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Flynn's sentencing was delayed while he cooperated with former Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation, but earlier this year, Flynn's new legal team accused prosecutors of misconduct and asked to have his guilty plea withdrawn.

But Trump's pardon, which he announced in a tweet, means Flynn will theoretically no longer be protected from self-incrimination under the 5th Amendment should he ever be called to testify against Trump.

As Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe explained to Time in 2017, "anyone pardoned by Trump would lose most of the 5th Amendment's protection against compelled testimony that might otherwise have incriminated the pardoned family member or associate, making it much easier for [the Justice Department] and Congress to require such individuals to give testimony that could prove highly incriminating to Trump himself."

There are some caveats, of course. While there is speculation Trump could face criminal charges at some point post-presidency, there is no evidence that will happen. Even if it did, it's still unclear exactly what Flynn is being pardoned for, since, as Politico notes, he was criminally exposed both for lying to investigators and "acting as an unregistered agent for Turkey." So if the pardon is specific, there's a chance Flynn would still have that protection. Tim O'Donnell

4:02 p.m.

President-elect Joe Biden mixed messages of caution and hope in a pre-Thanksgiving, presidential-style address Wednesday.

He urged Americans to hold out for a while longer as the coronavirus pandemic continues to worsen in the United States, telling them not to "surrender to the fatigue" and "remember we are at war with the virus, not one another." But he also pointed to a light at the end of the tunnel, noting that substantial progress has made been made in vaccine development. "There's real hope, tangible hope," he said. "So hang on ... I know we can and we will beat this virus. America's not gonna lose this war. We'll get our lives back." Tim O'Donnell

3:32 p.m.

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to surge, more Americans are reporting going hungry, a Washington Post analysis found.

In data collected by the Census Bureau between Oct. 28 and Nov. 9, around 12 percent of all American adults reported not having enough food to eat, a figure higher than at any other point since the pandemic began earlier this year. Indeed, experts believe it's likely hunger has reached levels not seen in the U.S. since 1998, per the Post.

The situation has hit several groups particularly hard — 16 percent of households with children have reported going hungry, including 25 percent of households with children where the adult is out of work. Black Americans, meanwhile, the Post notes, are experiencing hunger at nearly twice the rate of all American adults, and 2.5 times the rate of white Americans.

In terms of geography, the Houston area, which was posting some of its lowest hunger rates amid a strong economy before the pandemic took hold, has seen one of the worst hunger surges in the country, the Post reports. More than 20 percent of the 7 million adults in the metro area have reported going hungry, including 30 percent of adults with children in their households. The situation there has led to thousands of people lining up in their car for food drives in the city. Read more at The Washington Post. Tim O'Donnell

1:32 p.m.

Illinois is experiencing a "dire" coronavirus situation that seems to mostly be flying under the national radar, says Youyang Gu, a data scientist who created a COVID-19 pandemic modeler.

As Gu points out, Illinois last week recorded more cases in a single day than Florida ever has, though Florida has been considered a hot spot throughout much of the pandemic. Illinois is the country's sixth-most populous state and testing has ramped up, but Florida still has much a higher population. Meanwhile, Illinois is the only state to average 12,000 cases per day over the course of a week — not even California or Texas have reached those numbers.

Gu notes it's tough to figure out exactly what's contributing to the surge in Illinois, since the state has been proactive with it's mitigation messages and efforts, which shows the challenges of managing and predicting the course of the pandemic. Tim O'Donnell

1:25 p.m.

Alabama coach Nick Saban has again tested positive for COVID-19.

The University of Alabama in a statement said Saban tested positive for the coronavirus on Wednesday, and he has "very mild symptoms," ESPN reports.

"He will follow all appropriate guidelines and isolate at home," the statement said.

Saban had previously tested positive for the coronavirus in October, at the time saying he had no symptoms. But days later, he was cleared to coach because he subsequently tested negative for COVID-19 three times, meaning the original test was "considered a false positive." The University of Alabama said Wednesday, however, that "this test will not be categorized as a potential false positive," as Saban has symptoms in this case.

As a result of this positive test, Saban won't coach Saturday's game against Auburn, and "the head-coaching duties will fall to offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian," ESPN reports.

Saban on a conference call with reporters after his diagnosis was disclosed said, "We hate it that this situation occurred, but as I said many times before, you've got to be able to deal with disruptions this year, and our players have been pretty mature about doing that," The New York Times reports. He added, "We just want to carry on the best we can." Brendan Morrow

12:46 p.m.

Diego Maradona, the Argentine soccer legend, has died after suffering a heart attack, his agent confirmed Wednesday. He was 60.

Maradona is considered one of the greatest soccer players of all time, known for leading Argentina's national team to the 1986 World Cup title in Mexico. En route to the final, he scored a goal that has become known as the "Hand of God," in which he punched the ball into the net with his fist against England in the quarterfinals. While it likely would've been called off in today's game thanks to replay, the referees did not have a clear view and let the goal count, giving Argentina a 1-0 lead. Maradona later had another memorable goal that gave his side a 2-1 victory.

Outside of the national team, he enjoyed a fruitful professional career in Argentina, Italy, and Spain.

During Maradona's post-playing career, he struggled with health issues and drug and alcohol abuse. He also had an unsuccessful stint managing Argentina's national team, but remained beloved in his home country. Read more at The Associated Press. Tim O'Donnell

11:31 a.m.

President-elect Joe Biden will not receive pressure from his European counterparts to rush back into the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Officials from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom told the Journal that their countries are still supportive of the deal, but they don't think it will be possible or even desirable to achieve a full return to the agreement before Iran's presidential elections in June. Like several analysts, they think it's better to wait and see how things unfold before giving up any leverage.

Diplomats in Europe reportedly believe Iran will elect a more hard-line president than the comparatively moderate incumbent, Hassan Rouhani. If Biden successfully hurries the U.S. back into the deal while Rouhani remains in office, it could lead to his successor quickly reversing it on Tehran's end, making it much more difficult to reach a broader agreement that would prompt Iran to reverse its expanded nuclear activities.

What Europe does seem to want is for the Biden administration to ease the tensions and sanctions that have defined President Trump's relationship with Iran and offer Tehran "some tangible economic benefits" before the vote, theoretically creating incentive for the next government to negotiate. Read more at The Wall Street Journal. Tim O'Donnell

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