Outsized support from women has Biden ahead or competitive in Iowa, Georgia, and Texas, poll finds


Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading President Trump by more than 7 percentage points in national polling averages, but as Trump showed in 2016, winning the Electoral College is what gets you elected. Well, "Trump is on the defensive in three red states he carried in 2016," The New York Times reported Thursday morning, unveiling new Times/Sienna College polls of likely voters in Iowa, Georgia, and Texas.
Thanks to "a wall of opposition from women," the Times reports, Trump trails Biden by 3 points in Iowa, is tied with him in Georgia, and is ahead by 3 points in Texas, and the Democrats are competitive in those states' Senate races as well.
Biden is beating Trump among women by 14 points in Iowa, 10 points in Georgia, and 8 points in Texas. Trump leads among men in all three states, but Biden has "sharply narrowed" Trump's advantage among men "while improving on Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead with women in Texas and Iowa," the Times reports. And "the overwhelming majority of voters — about nine in every 10 in all three states — say they have definitely made up their minds about whom to vote for, leaving relatively little room for late developments to shift the overarching shape of the race."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The Times/Sienna poll was conducted via phone among likely voters Sept. 16-22 and its margin of sampling error is ± 4 percentage points for Texas and ± 5 points in Georgia and Iowa. The results are mostly better for Biden than in polling averages, where Trump leads by 0.9 points (FiveThirtyEight) or 1.2 points (RealClearPolitics) in Georgia, 0.4 points (FiveThirtyEight) or 1.4 points (RCP) in Iowa, and 1 point (FiveThirtyEigth) or 2.3 points (RCP) in Texas.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
5 inexcusably hilarious cartoons about Ghislaine Maxwell angling for a pardon
Cartoons Artists take on the circle of life, Ghislaine's Island, and more
-
Ozzy Osbourne obituary: heavy metal wildman and lovable reality TV dad
In the Spotlight For Osbourne, metal was 'not the music of hell but rather the music of Earth, not a fantasy but a survival guide'
-
Codeword: August 2, 2025
The Week's daily codeword puzzle
-
Trump revives K-12 Presidential Fitness Test
Speed Read The Obama administration phased the test out in 2012, replacing it with a program focused on overall health rather than standardized benchmarks
-
El Salvador scraps term limits, boosting Nayib Bukele
Speed Read New constitutional changes will allow presidents to seek reelection an indefinite number of times
-
Trump assigns tariffs, delays all except on Canada
Speed Read A 35% tariff on many Canadian goods has gone into effect
-
Harris rules out run for California governor
Speed Read The 2024 Democratic presidential nominee ended months of speculation about her plans for the contest
-
Trump sets new tariff rates as deadline nears
Speed Read New tariff rates for South Korea, Brazil and India announced
-
Ghislaine Maxwell: angling for a Trump pardon
Talking Point Convicted sex trafficker's testimony could shed new light on president's links to Jeffrey Epstein
-
Senate confirms Trump loyalist Bove to top court
Speed Read The president's former criminal defense lawyer was narrowly approved to earn a lifetime seat
-
Ghislaine Maxwell offers testimony for immunity
Speed Read The convicted sex trafficker offered to testify to Congress about her relationship with late boyfriend Jeffrey Epstein