Biden leads Trump by 9 points in must-win Pennsylvania, 2 major polls find


Pennsylvania may turn out to be the keystone in the Electoral College victory of either President Trump or Democratic challenger Joe Biden, and two polls released Monday show Biden with a large but not insurmountable lead of 9 percentage points. Biden is ahead of Trump 54 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in a new Washington Post/ABC News survey and 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena College poll. Both results are near the edge of the margin of error.
In both polls, Biden's strong support among women and in the Philadelphia suburbs, plus his competitiveness in Pennsylvania's western and northeastern counties, outweigh Trump's bedrock backing in central Pennsylvania. In the Post/ABC poll, Biden has a 23-point lead among women and a 7-point deficit among men; in the Times/Siena poll, he is up 26 points among women and 8 points behind among men. Both results are better for Biden than the exit polls for Hillary Clinton, who narrowly lost Pennsylvania to Trump in 2016.
Trump leads narrowly on the economy but trails Biden on every other issue, and 47 percent (Times/Siena) and 49 percent (Post/ABC) of Pennsylvania voters "strongly" disapprove of his job performance overall. In the Post/ABC poll, 8 percent of Trump 2016 voters now back Biden, versus 1 percent of Clinton voters who now back Trump. Trump's rush to push through a new Supreme Court appointment was frowned on by a slight majority of likely voters in each poll, and may have backfired with moderates.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The Post/ABC poll was conducted via phone Sept. 21-26 among a random sample of 702 registered voters and 567 likely Pennsylvania voters, and its margin of sampling error is ± 5 percentage points for likely voters. The Times/Siena poll interviewed 711 likely Pennsylvania voters Sept. 25-27, and its margin of sampling errors ± 4.3 points. RealClearPolitics shows Biden beating Trump by an average of 5.7 points in Pennsylvania; FiveThirtyEight has Biden with a lead of 5.5 points and a 79 in 100 chance of winning the state.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Book reviews: ‘Red Scare: Blacklists, McCarthyism, and the Making of Modern America’ and ‘How to End a Story: Collected Diaries, 1978–1998’
Feature A political ‘witch hunt’ and Helen Garner’s journal entries
By The Week US Published
-
The backlash against ChatGPT's Studio Ghibli filter
The Explainer The studio's charming style has become part of a nebulous social media trend
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Why are student loan borrowers falling behind on payments?
Today's Big Question Delinquencies surge as the Trump administration upends the program
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Myanmar quake deaths rise as survivor search intensifies
speed read The magnitude-7.7 earthquake in central Myanmar has killed a documented 2,000 people so far, and left scores more trapped beneath rubble
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'Like a sound from hell': Serbia and sonic weapons
The Explainer Half a million people sign petition alleging Serbian police used an illegal 'sound cannon' to disrupt anti-government protests
By Abby Wilson Published
-
Israel detains director after West Bank settler clash
speed read The director of Oscar-winning documentary 'No Other Land' was arrested and beaten
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Turkey arrests Istanbul mayor, a top Erdogan rival
Speed Read Protests erupted in Turkey after authorities detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Israel strikes Gaza, breaking ceasefire
Speed Read 326 Palestinians were killed in the first major attack since Netanyahu's government signed a ceasefire agreement with Hamas
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The arrest of the Philippines' former president leaves the country's drug war in disarray
In the Spotlight Rodrigo Duterte was arrested by the ICC earlier this month
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Houthis vow retaliation amid US airstrikes
Speed Read Trump promises the US will use 'overwhelming lethal force' against the Houthis until they stop attacking Red Sea ships
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Pakistan train hostage standoff ends in bloodshed
Speed Read Pakistan's military stormed a train hijacked by separatist militants, killing 33 attackers and rescuing hundreds of hostages
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published