The early vote in Texas and Florida is already greater than Trump's 2016 totals in those states

Texas and Florida's early voters have already surpassed a meaningful record, and several other states are close behind.

As of Friday, Florida had already counted more early votes — 4,771,956 — than votes for President Trump in the 2016 election — 4,617,886. Texas passed that same threshold earlier this week with more than 5 million votes cast so far in 2020 to 4.69 million cast for Trump in 2016. It all points to a record turnout for the 2020 election — and potentially good news for Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

In Florida, a poll from St. Pete Polls and Florida Politics suggests those early and absentee voters are overwhelmingly directed in Biden's favor. Among those who'd already voted, 58 percent voted for Biden while 39 percent went for Trump. Still, the poll found 49 percent of likely voters — including those who had yet to cast their ballots — were opting for Biden, with Trump close behind at 47 percent. Republicans will also benefit from a surge of voter registration in Florida for this election.

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In Texas, polls have also suggested Biden has a chance of turning the state blue for the first time in decades, and a rush of early votes lends credence to that possibility. California, Washington, D.C., New Jersey, New Mexico, and Vermont also cast more early votes as of Monday than Trump won in those states in 2016. Georgia, with 1.9 early and absentee votes cast as of Thursday, is close to passing that threshold as well.

The poll of 2,527 Floridian likely voters was taken Oct. 12–14, with a 2 percentage point margin of error. Of those likely voters, 60.3 percent had already voted by mail or in person.