"One rash move – one miscalculation – could trigger a catastrophe that goes far beyond the border, and frankly, beyond imagination."
That was the stark assessment of UN Secretary-General António Guterres last Friday, as tensions between Israel and Lebanon's Iran-backed militia group Hezbollah threaten to boil over into open war for the first time in nearly two decades.
Despite "strenuous efforts and stern warnings" from Western officials, the risk of an "expanding regional conflict is now rising by the hour", said Politico.
What did the commentators say?
Founded in 1982 by a group of radical Shia clerics in the midst of the Lebanese civil war, Hezbollah, or the Party of God, has a "well-resourced" fighting force "that can defeat most Arab armies", said Time.
With backing from Iran believed by the US to run to hundreds of millions of dollars a year, recent estimates by the Atlantic Council put Hezbollah's manpower at roughly 30,000 fighters and 20,000 reservists. This number does not include non-combatant workers and volunteers, including women, nor other members and non-member supporters based abroad.
Thousands of fighters from other Iran-backed groups in the Middle East are ready to come to Lebanon to join Hezbollah in its battle with Israel "if the simmering conflict escalates into a full-blown war", said ABC News.
Since the last major confrontation with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah has "significantly expanded its arsenal and capabilities", said The Guardian. This includes acquiring suicide drones that Israel has struggled to counter, as well as anti-aircraft missile capability and an array of missiles that experts now believe number between 120,000 and 200,000, making it "the world's best-armed non-state group".
It has also gained vital battlefield experience. Hezbollah played a crucial role supporting the Assad regime during the brutal Syrian civil war, and has spent much of the last decade engaged in fighting in Iraq and Yemen.
What next?
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the group is not currently seeking all-out war – but that Israeli forces would face a more powerful enemy than in the past should they slide into full conflict.
If this happens, "it will be nothing short of a game-changer", Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told CNBC. Compared to Hamas, Hezbollah is "a much more formidable fighting force". Its involvement would have huge consequences "not only for Israel, but also for the entire region".
| 
