Nigel Farage has faced ridicule over his ambitions for Reform UK to supplant the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour following next week's general election.
But while many may scoff, "there is a playbook for this", said The Telegraph. Just such a shock victory in Canada in 1993 has "acquired a near mythical status on the populist right". And the parallels with the present-day UK are "uncanny".
What happened to Conservatives in Canada? In Canada's 1988 federal elections, the Progressive Conservatives (PC) won a second consecutive majority with 43% of the vote. Just five years later, they were reduced to two seats in the 295-seat Parliament. The PC was "effectively supplanted by Canada's Reform Party, which became the broad home of right-wing voters", said City A.M.
It is "difficult to overstate the magnitude" of Canada's 1993 election result, said the UK in a Changing Europe think tank. The country's political landscape was "fundamentally altered", said The Guardian, and the "notion" that only the PC and the ruling Liberals were the "rightful parties of government" was "shattered".
What happened to Canada's Reform Party? Initially founded as a protest movement, Reform "stormed to prominence" in 1993, campaigning on a "populist agenda", said CBC News. Reform won 52 seats and effectively became "the voice of Western Canada".
Within less than a decade, rebranded as the Conservative Alliance, the party had swept to power. "In the end they sort of 'reverse took over' the old Conservative Party – they are the model," Farage said recently. "That's the plan."
Will it happen in the UK? If the polls are correct, the Conservatives are heading for a cataclysmic electoral defeat. But, "as dim as the prospects are for the Tories", said UK in a Changing Europe, they are unlikely to "suffer an electoral rout on the same scale" as that suffered by the PCs.
If Labour returns to power next week, the Conservatives are "likely" to be the biggest opposition party, said Prospect magazine. "What is remarkable is that the question is even worth asking."
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