The Week Evening Review
Europe's key military player, Asteroid 2024 YR4, and Elon Musk's young 'sidekick'

 
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION

How worried should we be about asteroids?

You "may want to keep your head down" on 22 December 2032, said Time. That's the day an asteroid may strike our planet.

The chances of 2024 YR4 striking Earth increased this week to 1 in 32 but then dramatically fell to just 1 in 67 after further observations, leaving lots of people confused about just how worried we should be.

What did the commentators say?
2024 YR4 measures only 130 to 300 feet across, "a pebble" compared to the asteroid that "killed the dinosaurs". But it's "moving fast" – about 38,000mph – and it's that "screaming speed" that causes even a relatively small asteroid to "pack such destructive force" because the energy is "dissipated when it collides with something like a planet".

"It's far from panic stations" for Earth, said Sky News. This is partly because the asteroid is "made of a rocky substance", which means it could "break into smaller pieces if it enters Earth's atmosphere".

So "I'm not worried just yet", said Carrie Nugent, author of "Asteroid Hunters", in The Guardian, because "we’ve got time to prepare" and the asteroid is "not terribly large by asteroid standards".

Also, the surface of the Earth is "mostly water" and "most experts would agree" that a 40- to 90-metre asteroid-ocean impact could happen "without loss to human life or property".

What next?
The asteroid is expected to disappear from view around April, so further observations are being "conducted in a hurry", said The Independent. It will not be possible to study it again until 2028 – "at which point it could be too late".

The James Webb Space Telescope, which has an infrared eye that allows it to track the asteroid further out than optical light telescopes, will improve our understanding of the asteroid, Robin George Andrews, author of "How to Kill an Asteroid", told Ars Technica. Its "first observations" should appear by the end of March.

Meanwhile, it's important that countries work together on the threat of asteroids because global cooperation is, "unsurprisingly for a threat that comes from the stars", absolutely "essential", said The Washington Post.

 
 
THE EXPLAINER

How Poland became Europe's military power

"Centuries" after it was last one of the world's great powers, Poland's "winged hussars are back", said The Economist. And not just back, said The Parliament. Last year's Armed Forces Day was celebrated with a display that said "its military is better trained and equipped than at any other time in the country's history".

Poland has become one of the key military players in Nato, allocating 4.12% of its GDP to defence in 2024 – twice the organisation's target and more than the US. It aims to boost that to 4.7% this year.

In addition, it has grown its armed forces from the ninth-biggest in Nato in 2014 to third today, doubling the number of personnel and tripling its spending in real terms to $35 billion. Out of its European allies, only Britain, France and Germany spend more.

How is Poland growing its military strength?
Since the introduction of the Homeland Defence Act in 2022, Warsaw has bought "hundreds" of tanks, howitzers and rocket systems, said The Economist. "Pride of place" was an estimated $60 billion worth of equipment from the US.

Military personnel numbers have also grown since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. From around 99,000 a decade ago, they hit 116,200 in 2020 before jumping to an estimated 216,000 today. The only countries ahead of them in numbers are the US and Turkey, said the independent Notes from Poland.

What is driving Poland's military growth?
There is one clear reason, said The Parliament: "Russia’s unprovoked invasion of neighbouring Ukraine in February 2022."

Poland shares a border with both Belarus, a close Russian ally, and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, leaving it potentially vulnerable. A month after Moscow launched its attack, the Polish government passed the Homeland Defence Act expanding its armed forces.

Warsaw's relationship with the US has also played a key part, said Politico. Polish politicians hope their military spending spree will make an impression on Donald Trump, who has frequently called for greater defence spending from Nato. "It’s kind of an insurance policy," said Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.

 
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY

"What I heard was the logic of imperialism dressed up as a realpolitik."

Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned G20 nations not to be fooled by Vladimir Putin's attempts to dress up imperialism as pragmatism in advance of any talks over the future of Ukraine. Lammy made the comments after listening to a speech by Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov in a closed-door session at the summit in Johannesburg.

 
 

Poll watch

A third (33%) of "white van men" are privately educated or went to grammar school, according to new research. Upending the stereotypical view of van drivers as working-class tradesmen, many are now middle-class university graduates, according to the research by Mercedes-Benz. In 1995, around the time the phrase was popularised to describe van-driving tradespeople, the figure was closer to 12%. 

 
 
TALKING POINT

Elon Musk and his 'emotional support human'

From "meetings with foreign leaders to the control room of a SpaceX launch", Elon Musk's young children are his ever-present work sidekicks.

His four-year-old son "Lil X" (full name X Æ A-Xii) is his most frequent companion, and Musk has referred to him an "emotional support human", said the BBC. But following the child's "unusual" cameo at a recent Oval Office press briefing, commentators are questioning why Musk's children "tag along" on official business, and what messages the new head of the US Department of Government Efficiency is trying to convey.

'Complementary accessory'
It may be "somewhat of a cliché" but how would the public react if a "high-powered woman in the American government brought her kid to a press conference?" asked Glamour. X's appearances alongside Musk and President Donald Trump have been a "zany viral moment", but it is also a "pretty clear-cut example" that fathers aren't judged in the same way as mothers. Being seen "with our child in our workplace" is a "risk" women cannot take; for Musk, a child is a "complementary accessory".

Doing business with his offspring in tow sends a "message, intentional or otherwise" that Musk is not an "erratic share-tanking shit-poster" but a "cuddly dad who has it all", said New York Magazine. And, given his known "personal commitment to staunching the population collapse", Musk is also showing "how much skin he has in that doomerist game".

'Leading by example'
The "contempt and hostility" shown towards Musk for taking his child to work is overblown, said Bethany Mandel in the Washington Examiner. The "best way imaginable" to teach young minds "how the world works" is to immerse them in "incredible experiences". And, if we are to reverse declining birth rates, we must normalise "the presence of children, putting their needs first". On this, Musk "is leading by example".

It's clear Musk "revels in the company of his child", said Pooja Pillai in the Indian Express, "proudly showing him off to the world and its leaders". Coming over all "relatable" by being the "doting dad carrying his little tyke piggyback" may be a calculated move but anyone can see that X is genuinely "a source of great joy to him".

 
 

Good day 🧠 

...for emus, who have been wrongly maligned as the "world's dumbest bird", according to scientists. The large, flightless birds have long been regarded as dim-witted compared to parrots and crows. But emus have impressed scientists from the University of Bristol with their problem-solving skills, after being able to create a "new technique to access food" in an experiment. However, ostriches, which are from the palaeognath class of birds, were unable to do so.

 
 

Bad day 🧼

… for long-running soap "Neighbours", after it was cancelled for a second time in as many years. The Australian show was revived by Amazon after it was axed by Channel 5 in 2022. Amazon hasn't given a reason for cancelling the show, which launched the careers of stars such as Kylie Minogue and Margot Robbie, but confirmed that the series will finish at the end of 2025, 40 years and more than 9,000 episodes after its television debut.

 
 
picture of the day

Cheeky monkey

A vet holds a critically endangered Kalimantan orangutan, born at Bandung Zoo in West Java, Indonesia, in December.

Septianjar Muharam / Xinhua / Alamy Live News

 
 
Puzzles

Test your general knowledge with The Week's daily crossword, part of our puzzles section, which wrongly beenn also includes sudoku and codewords

 
 
THE WEEK RECOMMENDS

Nottingham: The Old Museum, Castle Gate
This Grade II Georgian townhouse in the heart of the city centre boasts a handsome facade, and retains original features such as wooden beams. 2 suites, 2 further beds, family bath, shower, kitchen, recep, utility, gym. £680,000; FHP Living

Exeter: Richmond Road
An impressive townhouse in an elevated position half-a-mile from the city centre. Main suite, 4 further beds, family bath, shower, kitchen, 3 receps, garden, parking. £1.15m; Knight Frank

York: Precentor's Court
A Georgian townhouse in the heart of the city, just yards from York Minster. 3 beds, family bath, shower, kitchen, 2 receps, walled courtyard. £700,000; Savills

Durham: South Street
Fine Georgian townhouse with impressive interiors. The property is close to the city centre and overlooks Durham Cathedral and "Castle" College. 6 beds, 2 baths, shower, study, 6 receps, cellar, garden, parking. £1.2m; Finest Properties

 
 

Statistic of the day

£15.4 billion: The amount by which the UK's public finances increased in January, thanks to a rise in self-assessment and capital gains tax receipts. The surplus is the highest since records began in 1993 – but far lower than the £20 billion expected by City economists and the government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility. 

 
 
instant opinion

Today's best commentary

I hate to say it but it's time to bring back Boris Johnson
Alison Phillips in The i Paper
"I don't want to come over all Nadine Dorries," writes Alison Phillips, but "it may be time for BBB – Bring Back Boris". The Ukraine peace process "could be the moment Johnson redeems himself" and makes the US president understand the "true plight of Ukraine and the criminal opportunism of Russia". Trump's "a thin-skinned narcissist" who has "only a casual relationship with the truth", and "it takes one to know one".

Let the people decide
Yuan Yi Zhu in The Critic
Defamation actions are now "exclusively tried by judges", writes Yuan Yi Zhu. Courts can exercise their discretion to order a jury trial but judges "tend to be confident about the quality of their moral fibre", so it's "not likely that there ever will be another libel trial by jury in the High Court". This does little to "dispel the fear" of a "longer-term attack on juries in general".

Thanks for reminding me why skiing's on my list of things to never do, Andy
Carol Midgley in The Times
"I love Andy Murray," writes Carol Midgley, and he's recently confirmed "my prejudices" about skiing. I've "never been skiing" and I'm grateful to the tennis star for "reassuring me that this is a mark of sanity". I'm "risk-averse" and "a pessimist", and can't see why it's "fun" to "drink a bottle of wine, ram into other people at 30mph, breaking their pelvises", while "everyone congratulates you for living your best life".

 
 
word of the day

Maneki-neko

Meaning '"beckoning cat" in Japanese, nearly 500 of the iconic luck-bringing cat figurines have been stolen from Gordon Ramsay's new Lucky Cat restaurant in London's Bishopsgate, says the chef. "There were 477 stolen last week – they cost £4.50 each," he told ITV's "The Jonathan Ross Show". 
The City of London Police said it has not received any reports of theft from the restaurant, which would amount to a loss of £2,146.50.

 
 

In the morning

Look out for our Saturday Wrap in your inboxes tomorrow, which looks back at the assassination of controversial civil rights leader Malcom X, who was killed 60 years go this week.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading,
Sorcha

 
 

Evening Review was written and edited by Sorcha Bradley, Jamie Timson, Harriet Marsden, Elizabeth Carr-Ellis, Rebekah Evans, Chas Newkey-Burden, Rebecca Messina, Irenie Forshaw, Helen Brown and David Edwards, with illustrations from Julia Wytrazek and Marian Femenias Moratinos.

Image credits, from top: Wojtek Radwanski / Getty Images; Illustration by Julia Wytrazek / Getty Images; Illustration by Marian Femenias Moratinos / Getty Images; Finest Properties; Knight Frank; FHP Living; Savills