For nearly a quarter of a century, Vladimir Putin has led Russia as one of the most successful authoritarians on Earth. But more than four years after launching the all-out invasion of Ukraine, the Russian president is in unfamiliar political territory, amid rumours of organised unrest.
What did the commentators say?
There is a sense of “mounting unease within the Kremlin” as it grapples with not only domestic and economic problems but also “increasing signs of dissent and setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine”, said CNN, citing a leaked report from an unnamed European intelligence agency. Following a “wave of assassinations of top Russian military figures and fears of a coup”, Putin’s security has been “dramatically increased” and surveillance systems have been installed “in the homes of close staffers”.
Putin is “increasingly concerned” about an alleged “plot by members of the Russian political elite to topple him”, said The Times, “or even assassinate him with drones”. The president and his family have “stopped visiting their luxury residences” and he is spending “weeks at a time in bunkers”.
The leaked report focuses on “growing internal tensions” between Putin and his former defence minister, said the Kyiv Post. Sergei Shoigu, now Russia’s Security Council secretary, is considered a “potential coup risk” for his “continued influence within the military leadership”, although there is no hard evidence of personal “wrongdoing”.
Putin’s authority has been hit by a “confluence” of factors, said The Economist, including rising wartime costs. Shifting geopolitical winds and the collapse of Russia’s previous “social contract”, in which the state “stayed out of people’s private lives while citizens stayed out of politics”, have created a “situation which in chess is known as a Zugzwang: when every move worsens the position”.
But this leaked report looks “suspiciously more like a psyop meant to generate paranoia in the Russian elite”, said Mark Galeotti at The Spectator. Putin “may indeed fear direct Ukrainian attack”, but talk of a coup feels more like intelligence agencies providing “their masters with what they want, not need, to hear”.
What next?
Revolution is not “imminent”, said The Wall Street Journal, and Putin is unlikely to “be sidelined soon”. But compared to “just last December”, when Russia was “buoyed by hopes” of a US-negotiated Moscow-friendly ceasefire with Ukraine, the “change in mood is remarkable”.
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