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  • The Week Evening Review
    Looming storms, party coalitions, and fertility support for footballers

     
    TODAY’S BIG QUESTION

    How will the super El Niño affect the UK?

    The incoming super El Niño is set to impact people worldwide, with heatwaves expected to claim more than 450,000 lives over the next six months. Extreme weather, such as wildfires and flooding, is likely to cause many further deaths. Countries across the Global South are forecast to be hit hardest, but the UK will feel the ripple effects of the record-breaking climate phenomenon.

    What did the commentators say?
    The precise effect of El Niño on UK weather is “notoriously tricky to predict”, said Madeleine Cuff in New Scientist. Conditions in northern Europe are “strongly affected” by weather phenomena in the North Atlantic, but El Niño develops over the Pacific. 

    The naturally occurring climate pattern usually means a “wetter, windier, stormier” autumn and early winter, followed by a late-winter cold snap. But the “sheer size” of the developing super El Niño could mean that those wet and wild autumn conditions continue into winter and even spring, according to Adam Scaife at the Met Office.

    Disruption to global agricultural production and supply chains, “already marred by the inflationary impact of the Iran war”, will also affect UK consumers, said The Times. Cocoa investors are braced for El Niño-related drought conditions in the crop’s West Africa heartlands. Prices of robusta, one of the world’s major coffee beans, are also soaring amid expected “pressure on reservoirs in Vietnam and weak irrigation in Indonesia”. Combined with disruptions to wheat exports due to the Ukraine war, and rising transport costs amid the fuel supply disruptions in the Middle East, it’s a “perfect storm” for agricultural commodity markets, analyst Hamad Hussain told the paper.

    What next?
    That the strength of the El Niño phenomenon has been supercharged by “human-made folly and injustice” is “beyond doubt”, said The Guardian. The “extraordinary toll” expected from this year’s El Niño must act as a “spur to action” for world leaders to change course. That includes “accelerating efforts to prepare the UK for increasingly extreme weather”, because “we cannot afford not to do so”.

     
     
    THE EXPLAINER

    The parties that could form a government

    Britain is on course for a hung parliament in the next general election, according to YouGov’s latest MRP poll. Labour is forecast to be the biggest party with 241 seats, 85 short of an outright majority. The Conservatives follow on 130, trailed by Reform on 123. With the Liberal Democrats at 71 and the Green Party on nine, the likely outcome is a scramble to form a coalition.

    Labour-Liberal Democrat
    Andy Burnham has not commented directly on the prospect of a future coalition, but Ed Davey did not rule it out completely. Asked if he would form a coalition with Labour, the Lib Dem leader told the BBC that he did not deal in “hypotheticals”. Insiders from the PM’s team told The Times that Burnham’s support of electoral reform, a long-held Lib Dem cause, could provide the perfect olive branch to Davey’s party.

    Conservative-Liberal Democrat
    Unlike his neutral response to a Lab-Lib coalition, Davey dismissed suggestions that his party could do a deal with the Conservatives. “We’ve got a moral responsibility to stop Nigel Farage, and indeed stop Kemi Badenoch giving the keys to No. 10 to Nigel Farage,” he told the BBC. “I think there could be that sort of coalition on the right and we've got to stop that.”

    “Mention of a coalition often sparks fear into the heart of a Lib Dem,” said Politico, “because of how the last one ended.” The Tory-Lib Dem coalition government formed in 2010 was the UK’s first since 1945. But after five years as junior partner, the Lib Dems crashed from 57 Westminster seats to just eight in the next election.

    Conservative-Reform
    Farage last year denied that he would form an electoral pact with the Tories, following reports that he’d told donors such an agreement was inevitable. “I would never do a deal with a party that I do not trust,” he told the Financial Times. “No deals, just a reverse takeover.”

    Badenoch has rejected calls to “unite the right” and ruled out entering a coalition with Reform. “Problematic people” have joined Farage’s party, she told GB News this week. “How can we join with them?”

     
     

    Poll watch

    More than a third (35%) of Brits think nuclear war is likely within the next 30 years, and 70% think the UK would be directly involved. But, according to a YouGov survey for Sky News, 21% aren’t aware that Britain has nuclear weapons. 

     
     

    Statistic of the day

    550: The estimated number of deaths every week linked to overcrowding in A&Es. A review of more than 19,000 patients treated in emergency departments across England, Wales and Northern Ireland last year found that for every 10% increase in occupancy, the odds of dying over the following month increased by 1%, researchers told this week’s European Emergency Medicine Congress in France.

     
     
    IN THE SPOTLIGHT

    Egg freezing for footballers

    The world of elite sports is at odds over whether professional sporting bodies should support female athletes in freezing their eggs.
    The Royal Spanish Football Federation recently announced an agreement to fund egg freezing and fertility treatments for its players, following similar moves by Chelsea F.C. Women and the US National Women’s Soccer League. But experts and athletes have raised concerns about whether such measures truly support athletes during and after pregnancy.

    ‘Powerful message’
    “Elite athletes have been choosing to freeze their eggs on their own for years,” said El País – when they can “find a gap” in their intense schedules. What’s new is that national teams, leagues and clubs are “beginning to take charge of the process”. Chelsea’s fund, understood to be worth at least £189,000, is enough for the entire squad to freeze their eggs at a clinic in London’s Harley Street, “making it the most significant investment into fertility treatment from a women’s sports team in the UK”, said The Observer.

    Offering fertility services sends a “powerful message” that champions “should not have to choose between their sport and motherhood”, said Sarah Carson in The i Paper. The Spanish federation “understands that you are serving your country against your biological clock”, former Spain captain Alexia Putellas told El País.

    ‘Double-edged sword’
    Funding egg freezing and fertility treatments is only a feminist “win” if teams offer support during pregnancy and postpartum, such as maternity leave, breastfeeding facilities and childcare, two-time Olympic rower Jill Moffatt told CBC. “Otherwise, it’s kind of a double-edged sword.”

    Scheduling intensive fertility treatment around training and fixtures is also tricky. In her memoir, “All In”, England goalkeeper Mary Earps recalls asking an expert: “I’ve got three weeks. Do you think I could fit in an egg-freezing cycle in that time?”

    Spanish Olympic triple jumper Ana Peleteiro-Compaoré Brión has suggested the Spanish federation's move is aimed at pushing athletes to wait until retirement to start a family. “Is this measure intended to make it easier for women to be mothers,” she said on Instagram, “or is it intended to make it easier for them not to be while they’re playing?” 

     
     

    Good day ⚽

    … for marketable men, as David Beckham banks a £39 million dividend from his business empire following a series of World Cup deals. The former England captain appeared in multiple ad campaigns at this summer’s tournament, scoring record revenues for DRJB Holdings, the company behind the Beckham brand.

     
     

    Bad day💰

    … for generous men, who are apparently less attractive to the opposite sex. Women tend to favour “moderately altruistic” men who would hand over about £40 to charity, according to a new study, but donating £75 evoked “perceptions of impracticality, poor resource management, or even moral grandstanding”.

     
     
    picture of the day

    Hunger crisis

    Palestinians scramble to get food at a charity kitchen in the southern Gaza Strip. According to Unicef, one in eight children in the enclave are chronically malnourished or stunted by hunger despite the easing of aid restrictions.

    Bashar Taleb / AFP / Getty Images

     
     
    PUZZLES AND QUIZZES

    Quiz of The Week

    Have you been paying attention to The Week’s news? Try our weekly quiz, part of our puzzles section, which also includes sudoku and crosswords 

    Play here

     
     
    THE WEEK RECOMMENDS

    Properties of the week: eye-catching houses

    Essex: Valentine’s, Arkesden
    An arresting “upside-down” house nestled in landscaped grounds on the edge of one of northwest Essex’s most sought-after villages. 6 beds, 5 baths, kitchen, 2 receps, gym, garden, parking. £1.8 million; The Modern House.

    Lancashire: The Orangery, Woodfold Park
    A fine building with floor-to-ceiling windows built in 1820. 5 beds, 2 baths, kitchen/dining room, 3 receps, garden, parking. £1.5 million; Fine & Country.

    London: The Circle, Bermondsey SE1
    First floor flat in this iconic 1980s building by the architect Piers Gough on the banks of the Thames. 1 bed, family bath, open plan kitchen/living/dining room, communal gardens. £400,000; The Modern House.

    Denbighshire: Eyarth Hall, Ruthin
    A remarkable Grade II Elizabethan country house set in approx. 14 acres of gardens and woodland with views across the Vale of Clwyd. 6 beds, 3 baths, kitchen, 3 receps, paddocks, garden, parking. £1.15 million; Fisher German.

    See more

     
     
    QUOTE OF THE DAY

    “It’s well worth it when you get a beast like this.”

    Gardener Ian Paton celebrates his success in the National Giant Vegetables Championship at this year’s Malvern Autumn Show. The Lymington-based grower won the heaviest pumpkin category with a 1,258kg behemoth – 20kg less than the record-beating gourd he grew with his twin brother last year.

     
     
    instant opinion

    Today’s best commentary

    My day at Auschwitz with Wayne Rooney and why his reaction to the horrors there confounded every assumption I had about him
    Stephen Pollard in the Daily Mail
    Wayne Rooney visiting Auschwitz in his new reality series sounds “grotesque”, writes Stephen Pollard, but I accompanied him to the Polish death camp during the 2012 European Championships, and he showed “decorum, intelligent curiosity and thoughtfulness”. He was visibly shaken and called the Holocaust “crazy” and “hard to understand”. For “all their fame and fortune, footballers can be as moved by horror as anyone”. Rooney’s an “unlikely ambassador for the memory of Auschwitz, but perhaps all the more powerful for that”.

    Hope’s all very well but can the PM bring it home?
    Patrick Maguire in The Times 
    Andy Burnham’s Liverpool conference speech will be a return to “hope and belief”, rooted in the city that “made him”, writes Patrick Maguire. The PM is expected to reject Labour’s “it’s too hard” politics and instead focus on “bringing back hope” through intervention, devolution and reforms to Britain’s economic model, despite many “headwinds”. Burnham is “raising expectations far higher than any Labour leader has dared before”; the challenge is whether he can “do more than merely describe” Britain’s problems.

    Earl Spencer’s embarrassing mistake is a victory for the Royal Family
    Simon Kelner in The i Paper
    What Earl Spencer describes as his “small error” over Piers Morgan’s reporting is actually an “embarrassing, and extremely costly, mistake” that benefits the royal family, writes Simon Kelner. Morgan, suing for defamation, is “parading his outrage” while raising questions about how thoroughly Spencer’s book was “fact-checked” and whether “we can trust an author who presents ‘assumptions’ as facts”. Morgan “has become a proxy” for the royals’ “own battles”, and once again, the monarchy “simply needs to outlast” the controversy.

     
     
    word of the day

    Intergluteal

    An anatomical adjective for the area between the buttocks. Baring one’s intergluteal cleft, aka butt crack, is in vogue, with designer Emily Dawn Long’s collection at this month’s New York Fashion Week titled “The Crack of Dawn”. The trend could be about “embracing the chaos that is happening right now”, fashion commentator Liana Satenstein told The Times. Showing off your behind is “the ultimate F U to society”.

     
     

     Evening Review was written and edited by Harriet Marsden, Rebecca Messina, Jamie Timson, Will Barker, Chas Newkey-Burden, Stephanie Jones, David Edwards and Kari Wilkin.

    Image credits, from top: illustration by Julia Wytrazek / Getty Images; Matt Cardy / Getty Images; illustration by Julia Wytrazek / Getty Images; Bashar Taleb / AFP / Getty Images; The Modern House; Fine & Country; Fisher German; Savills
     

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