What happened Betting markets narrowed their odds significantly, shaving Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris just hours before Americans prepare to cast their vote in the 2024 US presidential election.
Who said what Trump and his allies had "touted the betting market forecasts as more accurate than traditional polling" in recent weeks, said The Guardian, particularly because most of the top platforms put him way ahead of Harris.
But Trump's chances have dipped, according to many betting market forecasts as election day arrives. Polymarket put them at 58% yesterday, down from 67% last week; Kalshi set them at 53%, falling from 65%.
What next? Some of the final traditional polls have shown a slight boost for Harris, though most suggest the election remains "agonisingly close", said The New York Times.
In the last poll published by the US National Public Radio and Public Broadcasting Service (NPR/PBS), Harris stretched her lead nationally, putting her on 51% to Trump's 47%, a 1% increase. Real Clear Politics, which had Trump leading last week, is now back to a tie, while the Silver Bulletin, run by polling guru Nate Silver, gives Trump a 50.4% chance of winning, and Harris a 49.2% chance.
About 75 million people, almost half of the likely electorate, have already voted early. The rest will start voting today when the first polling stations open at 6am on the US east coast (11am GMT). |