The world’s supply of glacial ice is quickly approaching an alarming milestone. In a striking study published this week in Nature Climate Change, researchers modelling multiple warming scenarios predicted that the number of glaciers that disappear annually is set to dramatically increase in the coming decades.
The paper introduces the concept of “peak glacier extinction”, defined by researchers as the year in which the “largest number of glaciers is projected to disappear between now and the end of the century”. With the Alps leading our planet’s glacial disappearing act, the next few years may be a turning point for much of the Earth’s ice.
Although typical glacier studies concentrate on “mass and area loss”, the new research focuses on the disappearance of “individual glaciers” – a trend that “directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes”, said the study’s authors.
Unsurprisingly, areas featuring the “smallest and fastest-melting glaciers” are “most vulnerable”, with about 3,200 glaciers in central Europe set to shrink by 87% by the coming century – “even if the global temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius”.
The study shows that we are at a “point of no return”, Eric Rignot, a professor of Earth system science at the University of California at Irvine, told CNN. “Reforming a glacier would take decades if not centuries.” The researchers behind the study hope that their paper – along with an accompanying database showing the “projected survival rate of each of the world’s 211,000 glaciers” – will help “assess climate impacts on local economies and ecosystems”, said Politico. |