“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own” was the maxim of 19th-century banker Nathan Rothschild. Not all investors share his appetite for risk, but most see gold as the ultimate safe haven and no more so than today, with the price of the precious metal soaring 50% this year, far outpacing returns from equities. In October, the gold value hit $4,380 an ounce, an all-time record.
What’s driving the gold rush? The gold price increase has been largely driven by uncertainty, “whether that’s geopolitical” or “economic,” Ryan McIntyre, of investment management firm Sprott, said to The New York Times. Institutions are attracted to gold as a store of value in times of crisis, the latest of which include tariff wars and fears of an AI stock crash.
Central banks, too, have increasingly sought protection “not against short-term meltdowns but longer-run changes,” said The Economist. According to the International Monetary Fund, central bank holdings of physical gold in emerging markets have risen 161% since 2006, with purchases going into overdrive in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both China and Russia have ramped up switching their official reserve assets out of currencies such as the dollar and into gold. The government shutdown also increased “long” positions held by hedge funds on gold futures, meaning that speculators are the “most likely drivers of recent price movements.”
What does it all mean? The rising price of gold is an indication of something big, according to Citadel CEO Ken Griffin. “That something is a loss of trust, first and foremost in U.S. treasuries but also in other G7 government bond markets,” said The Telegraph.
Stress in the long-term bond markets and a devaluation of the dollar, which suffered its biggest decline in more than half a century this year, have unsettled investments usually seen as low risk. The “exploding gold prices” are a “warning sign,” said Paolo Pasquariello, a finance professor at the University of Michigan. It’s a “leading indicator of troublesome times ahead” for the U.S. economy. |