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  • The Week Evening Review
    Russia’s growing vulnerability, Colorado River cuts, and handguns in the mail

     
    TODAY’S BIG QUESTION

    Why has the tide turned against Russia in the Ukraine war?

    Russian forces last month lost more territory to Ukraine than they were able to capture. This marks a potential turning point in Moscow’s yearslong invasion. At the same time, Russia is losing soldiers faster than it can recruit and deploy them. While the Ukrainian front remains an active war zone, there’s a growing sense that momentum has shifted in Kyiv’s favor.

    What did the commentators say?
    Russia’s “diminished” Victory Day parade this month “signaled its vulnerability,” said The Economist. That sentiment was an “accurate reflection of Russia’s battlefield setbacks,” as well as the country’s “fear of the growing effectiveness of Ukraine’s long-range strikes.”

    Russia’s weakened position can be traced to a confluence of three factors, according to research from the Institute for the Study of War: Ukrainian “ground counterattacks and midrange strikes,” the end of Russia’s “illicit use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine,” and the Kremlin’s “paranoid throttling of the Telegram messaging app at home,” said The Economist. At the same time, Russia’s “territorial ambitions and aggressive demands” have run “completely counter to battlefield reality,” said the institute.

    May marks the fifth consecutive month in which Russia has lost “more soldiers than it can replace,” said National Security Journal. In addition to Ukraine’s military technological advances, communications failures “contributed significantly,” said the Atlantic Council. After SpaceX “cut the Russian army’s access to the satellite-based Starlink system” this spring, Russian commanders were “forced to rely on inaccurate maps” showing “exaggerated gains.” Some Russian troops were even deployed “without adequate communication tools or coordination.”

    The public mood within Russia is “souring,” said the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Russians “increasingly chafe” at the “restrictions on their liberties” imposed in pursuit of an unattainable victory, said Noah Rothman at the National Review.

    What next?
    The Russian military’s “communications problems” are “unlikely to persist in their current form,” said the Atlantic Council, and Moscow has already explored a “range of alternatives.” But it will take a “number of years” for the Russian military to “replicate the same level of efficiency previously provided by Starlink.” Russia’s flagging battlefield progress, meanwhile, is a problem for Putin, who “insisted that Russia’s victory in the war is inevitable,” said CNN. 

     
     
    QUOTE OF THE DAY

    ‘When you have strong religion, you have less crime. It’s like, “Gee, I want to go to heaven, so I’m not going to do this or that.” Who knows?’

    Trump on the “tremendous comeback” religion has made in the U.S. in the last few years, after being asked by reporters outside the White House about Sunday’s Rededicate 250 prayer event. Religion is “very important for our country” since the U.S. was built “based on religion,” he added. 

     
     
    TALKING points

    Can the West survive ‘drastic’ Colorado River cuts?

    Years of drought and growing demand have taken their toll on the Colorado River, which supplies water and hydropower to 40 million people in seven Western states. Now, the river is “on the brink of disaster,” said The Wall Street Journal. An “unusually warm winter” deprived Colorado and Utah of the snowpack that feeds the river in the spring, and this will have literal downstream effects. The Lake Powell reservoir in Utah and Arizona will “receive the least amount of water this year” since its creation in 1963.

    Western states have struggled for years to divvy up the dwindling supply, and old agreements are expiring. Now, the Trump administration is preparing a “drastic” plan to “cut water deliveries to farms, cities and tribes” by a third, said E&E News. 

    ‘Kicking this can down the road’
    The “clock is running out on a deal” between Western states to “keep the Colorado River alive,” said Mike Gardner at The Raincross Gazette. The Interior Department’s proposal would likely face years of legal challenges, but the system of dams and reservoirs along the river could “cease to function due to lack of water” before the lawsuits play out. The states must find agreement before the federal government imposes one. 

    States along the river have seen “enormous increases” in water consumption over the last half-century with “no thought for tomorrow,” said Steve Hanley at CleanTechnica. They have been “kicking this can down the road.” We are getting a “preview of the kind of wrangling” that will become common as Earth becomes “too hot in some places to sustain human life.”

    Downsizing agriculture?
    It’s time to build more water desalination plants on the Pacific Ocean, said Greg Walcher at The Daily Sentinel. If the Colorado River “cannot continue to supply all the people who once relied on it,” then plants seem a logical solution to the West’s “seemingly unsolvable water dilemma.” 

    Indeed, Arizona, Nevada and Utah are trying to “buy excess water” from San Diego, said The New York Times. The city built a desalination plant to process Pacific Ocean water in the 1990s. But such solutions will take time, and cutbacks loom in the short term. 

     
     

    Statistic of the day

    $1.1 billion: The amount in sales made by Christie’s auction house in just under three hours, marking “one of the best nights in its 259-year history,” said Artnet. Several postwar artists including Jackson Pollock set auction records. The top lot was his “Number 7A” (1948), selling for $181 million, almost three times the previous record.

     
     
    in the spotlight

    The USPS may allow handguns to be mailed

    Those who want to send weapons through snail mail may soon have an option, as the U.S. Postal Service is considering a proposal to allow people to ship handguns. Doing so has been illegal for nearly a century. And some firearm safety advocates are warning that the proposed change could bring unintended consequences.

    ‘Bypassing a longstanding law’
    Efforts to undo the ban on mailing handguns came when the Postal Service introduced a rule change “bypassing a longstanding law prohibiting the practice,” said The Trace. It has been illegal to mail concealable firearms like handguns since 1927, though the mailing of long-barreled weapons like rifles and shotguns is allowed if they are properly secured. The new rule would “expand the scope of mailable firearms” by “allowing lawful handguns to be mailed under the same terms and conditions as lawful rifles and shotguns,” according to the text of the rule in the Federal Register.

    The proposal was introduced two months after a Justice Department opinion declared that a ban on handgun mailing was “unconstitutional as applied to constitutionally protected firearms” because it “serves an illegitimate purpose and is inconsistent with the nation’s tradition of firearm regulation.” Gun rights activists lauded the rule, representing “another key victory for America’s law-abiding gun owners,” said John Commerford, the executive director of the NRA Institute for Legislative Action, to the Los Angeles Times.

    ‘Gun-trafficking pipeline’
    Some are concerned that allowing handguns to be sent through the mail will increase the chances of gun-related crimes. Passing the rule would turn the Postal Service into a “gun-trafficking pipeline” by giving “felons, abusers and straw purchasers a direct line to illegal firearms while stripping law enforcement of the tools they need to prevent and investigate gun crime,” said John Feinblatt, the president of the nonprofit Everytown for Gun Safety, to USA Today.

    A group of 22 attorneys general from largely Democratic states has sent a letter to the Postal Service urging it not to pass the rule. This “irresponsible loophole blatantly disregards public safety,” said California Attorney General Rob Bonta in a statement, and will “create a direct strain on state resources.”

     
     

    Good day ✍️

    … for English poetry. Researchers have discovered a copy of the oldest-known English-language poem. Attributed to a 7th-century agricultural laborer, “Caedmon’s Hymn” has been found transcribed in a 9th-century manuscript in Rome’s National Library. It’s the third-oldest surviving text of the poem, after older copies held at Cambridge, England, and St. Petersburg, Russia. The other versions are in Latin.

     
     

    Bad day 🧒

    … for children’s privacy. University of Washington researchers plan to give preschool teachers cameras that record footage from a first-person perspective, including the children they teach, to develop AI models. Parents are “troubled by the idea” of using their child’s likeness in “unknown AI tools and how this could be abused,” a parent said to 404 Media.

     
     
    Picture of the day

    Fire hose

    A resident waters his garden under a plume of smoke from a wildfire in the nearby hills of Simi Valley, California. Evacuation orders have been issued to more than 28,000 people in the area since the blaze began on Monday.
    Apu Gomes / AFP / Getty Images

     
     
    Puzzles

    Daily sudoku

    Challenge yourself with The Week’s daily sudoku, part of our puzzles section, which also includes guess the number

    Play here

     
     
    The Week recommends

    The best martial arts films of all time

    The magic of the movies is how many people first discovered the martial arts, a loosely related set of hand-to-hand combat practices, most closely associated with China, that have diffused across most of the world. This rich tradition has been showcased in the plots and action sequences of countless films, including these exceptional, beloved classics.

    ‘Enter the Dragon’ (1973)
    This movie will always be linked with the untimely death of its young star, Bruce Lee, before the film’s wide release. Unquestionably the “most influential martial arts movie ever made,” its profits, likely in excess of $100 million on a budget of less than $1 million, were “astronomical,” and the film has “more than stood the test of time,” said Tom Gray at BBC. (HBO Max)

    ‘Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon’ (2000)
    Directed by the legendary Ang Lee, “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (pictured above) was a global sensation, characterized by mesmerizing fight sequences enhanced with magical realism. Buoyed by the “undeniable elegance of Ang Lee’s direction,” it’s also noteworthy for its “explicitly feminist take on the genre,” said Matthew Thrift at the British Film Institute. (Tubi)

    ‘The Raid: Redemption’ (2011)
    Featuring and popularizing pencak silat, an Indonesian martial art, this film revolves around the efforts of a 20-person police SWAT team to storm a squalid apartment complex. The result is a “skull-splinteringly violent, uncompromisingly intense and simply brilliant martial arts action movie in a nightmarish and claustrophobic setting,” said Peter Bradshaw at The Guardian. (Pluto TV)

    Read more

     
     

    Poll watch

    More than half of Americans (59%) believe the country’s best years are behind us, while 40% think its best years are ahead, according to a Pew Research Center survey of 3,560 adults. Americans are much more pessimistic (44%) than optimistic (28%) about what the U.S. will be like in 50 years.

     
     
    WORD OF THE DAY

    ivermectin

    An antiparasitic medicine used to treat infections caused by worms. According to a study published in JAMA Network Open, prescriptions for the drug have spiked significantly over the past few months, after actor Mel Gibson claimed on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast that it successfully treated his friends’ cancer. The increase has been especially pronounced among cancer patients.

     
     
    INSTANT OPINION

    Today’s best commentary

    ‘This Ebola outbreak will be hard to contain’
    Katherine J. Wu and Hana Kiros at The Atlantic
    Africa has “weathered dozens of Ebola outbreaks before,” say Katherine J. Wu and Hana Kiros. But the “global health backdrop is simply different in 2026, largely the result of a series of public health decisions” made by the U.S., including “dismantling USAID, withdrawing from the WHO and ousting infectious disease experts en masse” from the CDC. The “fractured global health community is now playing a lethal game of catch-up with an extremely dangerous virus.”

    ‘Can geoengineering avert a climate catastrophe?’
    Anjana Ahuja at the Financial Times
    Researchers have “floated the idea” of building a dam across the Bering Strait that could “help to stabilize ocean currents crucial for regulating the climate,” says Anjana Ahuja. The “proposal is not orders of magnitude adrift of other marine megaprojects,” but in “geopolitical terms, with its need for long-term American and Russian cooperation, it seems preposterous.” Still, the “speculative and politically impossible megaproject” can “remind us how vital it is to keep existing climate commitments afloat.”

    ‘Congress must not walk away from the addiction crisis’
    Paul Tonko at Newsweek
    Before Congress “found the will to act on the addiction crisis, the recovery community was already doing the hard work,” says Rep. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.). They were “organizing, marching, testifying and demanding that their government see what they already knew: Addiction is a disease, and recovery is not only possible, it’s happening every single day.” At a time when the president’s “fiscal 2027 budget again proposes large funding cuts,” don’t cut “addiction and mental health services.”

     
     

    Evening Review was written and edited by Theara Coleman, Nadia Croes, David Faris, Scott Hocker, Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, Justin Klawans, Joel Mathis and Rafi Schwartz, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly.

    Image credits, from top: Illustration by Stephen P. Kelly / Getty Images; RJ Sangosti / MediaNews Group / The Denver Post / Getty Images; David Paul Morris / Bloomberg / Getty Images; Sony Pictures Classics / Chan Kam Chuen / Alamy
     

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