In the build-up to the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska today, the US president has made vague references to territorial swaps – a terrifying prospect for Ukraine and its allies "given that all the territory in question" is Ukrainian, said the BBC.
Vladimir Putin is said to be demanding control of the Donbas, a region consisting of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers have died trying to defend the Donbas, which is home to key industrial assets and millions of people, as well as being a fortified line protecting Ukrainian territory to the north and west.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has maintained that ceding land is impossible, because Ukraine is prohibited from doing so by its constitution. But Donald Trump appears to be giving this argument short shrift. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One earlier, Trump said land swaps would be "discussed" but that ultimately the greenlight would have to come from Kyiv. "I've got to let Ukraine make that decision," he said, "and I think they'll make a proper decision."
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Zelenskyy has stood his ground, telling journalists on Tuesday: "I am not going to surrender my country, because I have no right to do so." The Ukrainian president's red lines are that Ukraine "will not hand over any of its territory", that it must be "fully involved in any negotiation" and that Kyiv must receive "security guarantees as part of any peace deal", said the Financial Times.
"I was a little bothered by the fact that Zelenskyy was saying, 'Well, I have to get constitutional approval'," Trump told reporters on Monday. "I mean, he's got approval to go into war and kill everybody, but he needs approval to do a land swap?"
More than three-quarters of Ukrainians "oppose trading land for a promise of peace", said The New York Times. Crucially, inside the military, "that figure is much, much higher," said Serhii Kuzan, chair of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center. Given that Trump has previously withdrawn military support and financial aid from Ukraine, it's hard to imagine what other leverage to accept a land-swap arrangement might be on the table.
Russia and the US have reportedly discussed a "model" that "mirrors Israel’s occupation of the West Bank", whereby Russia would have military and economic control of occupied areas technically under Ukrainian sovereignty, a source told The Times. Apparently the idea was raised "weeks ago" in discussions between Steve Witkoff, Trump's peace envoy, and his Russian counterparts. The White House has denied that this is part of its plan.
For Zelenskyy, this is a juncture of "maximum pressure" domestically as well as on the battlefield, said the FT. Trump's team "are aware this is a moment of weakness for Zelenskyy", who is contending with sinking popularity at home, said former EU diplomat Balázs Jarábik. There is a danger that any agreement the president might make involving any surrender of Ukrainian territory to Russia would fail to be ratified by his parliament.
What next?
The US president called the Alaska summit a "feel-out meeting" and the White House described it as a "listening exercise", perhaps to lower expectations in case a deal is not reached.
In a call with Zelenskyy and European leaders on Wednesday, Trump apparently agreed that a ceasefire would be a prerequisite before any peace negotiations. That hasn't allayed fears that Trump and Putin will hatch a plan redrawing borders in Russia's favour and then force Ukraine to agree.
Zelenskyy has said that ceding territory, particularly in the strategically important Donbas region, would be a "springboard for a future new offensive" by Russia.
