Is it 1938 — or 2003?


It's 1938 again, and the greatest risk the West faces is not a third world war but appeasement in the face of Vladimir Putin's aggression in Ukraine. No, it's 1964 or 2003, and the U.S. must not again make the mistake of being stampeded into a foolish war like Vietnam or Iraq. Actually, it's 1995, and we have a moral duty to intervene militarily to prevent further slaughter, just as we did in Bosnia. Or it's 2011, and ousting Putin as we did Moammar Gadhafi may lead to chaos and dire unintended consequences. Take your pick. Human beings are wired to make comparisons, and in deciding how to best respond to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, it's natural to fall back on historical analogies. But which moment in history is most relevant? That's tricky business. The choice generally reflects the prior biases and agenda of the chooser, and can thus serve to mislead rather than to illuminate.
Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky, a canny communicator, has been a font of historical analogies. In trying to rally the Western world to do more to aid his country's defense, he evoked the Battle of Britain in a speech to the U.K.'s House of Commons and echoed Winston Churchill's "we shall never surrender" speech. To the U.S. Congress, Zelensky summoned up Pearl Harbor and 9/11. To Israel's Knesset, he spoke of Putin's "final solution" — the extermination of the Ukrainian people. Putin also has evoked World War II in justifying his barbaric assault, telling Russians their soldiers are engaged in a "denazification" program. It is, of course, not 1938, 1964, or 2003, and while the past can inform the present, it cannot tell us with any certainty how to deter or defeat Putin, who, not incidentally, has 6,000 more nuclear weapons than Hitler did. The only clear lesson of history is that 10 or 20 years from now, a sage analyst will declare that some future conflict is "another Ukraine."
This is the editor's letter in the current issue of The Week magazine.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
William Falk is editor-in-chief of The Week, and has held that role since the magazine's first issue in 2001. He has previously been a reporter, columnist, and editor at the Gannett Westchester Newspapers and at Newsday, where he was part of two reporting teams that won Pulitzer Prizes.
-
What led to Poland invoking NATO’s Article 4 and where could it lead?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION After a Russian drone blitz, Warsaw’s rare move to invoke the important NATO statute has potentially moved Europe closer to continent-wide warfare
-
Russia slams Kyiv, hits government building
Speed Read This was Moscow's largest aerial assault since launching its full-scale invasion in 2022
-
'Axis of upheaval': will China summit cement new world order?
Today's Big Question Xi calls on anti-US alliance to cooperate in new China-led global system – but fault lines remain
-
China's Xi hosts Modi, Putin, Kim in challenge to US
Speed Read Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Asian leaders at an SCO summit
-
Russian strike on Kyiv kills 23, hits EU offices
Speed Read The strike was the second-largest since Russia invaded in 2022
-
China is silently expanding its influence in American cities
Under the Radar New York City and San Francisco, among others, have reportedly been targeted
-
Kyiv marks independence as Russia downplays peace
Speed Read President Vladimir Putin has no plans to meet with Zelenskyy for peace talks pushed by President Donald Trump
-
What will security guarantees for Ukraine look like?
Today's Big Question From boots on the ground to economic sanctions, here are the measures that might stop Russia taking another bite out of Ukraine