Would Syria dare strike Israel?

A lot of mystery and some big unanswered questions surround Israel's pre-dawn Jan. 30 airstrike just miles inside the Syrian border — most notably, did the Israelis destroy a convoy of Russian-made SA-17 antiaircraft missiles, as Western diplomats and U.S. officials claim, or attack a military research facility, as the Syrians insist? Per its usual policy, Israel is keeping silent about the airstrike, but Syria's unusual acknowledgment that Israel attacked inside its borders — and threat, from its ambassador to Lebanon, Ali Abdul-Karim Ali, that Damascus "has the option and the capacity to surprise in retaliation" — has some pro-Israel analysts worried.

Israel's no-comment policy has several benefits, but a big one is letting targeted countries deny the attack, giving them a way to save face and avoid escalating the conflict. That's what happened in 2007, when Israel reportedly destroyed a Syrian nuclear reactor. But now, "from the moment they chose to say Israel did something, it means someone has to do something after that," Giora Eiland, a former national security adviser in Israel, tells The New York Times.

Syria's not the only actor that could retaliate, either. The convoy of missiles, according to Western sources, was headed for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, endangering Israel's ability to freely monitor the group's activities from Lebanese airspace; Hezbollah denounced the attack as a "barbaric aggression." And Iran, a key backer of both Syria and Hezbollah, said the attack would have "grave consequences for Tel Aviv," after warning over the weekend that any attack on Syria would be considered an attack on Iran.

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It "seems that Israel is not particularly impressed by Iranian threats," and probably with good reason, says Amos Harel in Israel's Haaetz. "The combination of strategic circumstances in the region at the moment makes the chance of a direct Iranian response unlikely," and "a Syrian military response seems even less likely, though neither possibility can be ruled out." That leaves two big question marks. The first and "most worrying unknown since Tuesday night concerns Hezbollah's reaction" — the militant group has already taken action against Israel at least three times in the past year, and will do so again, now or later. The second unknown?

Israeli officials carefully considered the possibility that a strike on Syria "could trigger a reprisal by Syria, Hezbollah, or even Iran," says Dan Ephron at The Daily Beast. They determined that the probability of a reprisal was low, and "that assessment seems to be holding up." The calculation is that "both Iran and Hezbollah have much to lose from an escalation with Israel," and Assad is "too busy fighting for his survival to take on Israel." Tel Aviv isn't taking any chances, though.

The idea that Syria will strike Israel may make Israelis jittery, but it makes Syrians chuckle. "They always say that — they'll retaliate, but later," a Damascus mother of five tells Reuters, laughing. "Always later." But even if Assad does let this attack go unpunished, Israel's airstrike "pointed to the larger changes afoot in the region," say Anne Barnard and Jodi Rudoren in The New York Times. And that should make everybody a little nervous.