Early voting: Obama's secret weapon?
Mitt Romney is surging in public opinion surveys. But President Obama is ahead in the only polling that really counts — the actual election
Election day is still more than three weeks away, but President Obama already has a lead over Mitt Romney. Forty states have begun early voting, and about 7 percent of likely voters surveyed by Reuters/Ipsos say they've already cast their ballots. (Even Mr. and Mrs. Obama are voting early.) According to Reuters/Ipsos, Obama is ahead with 59 percent of the early votes, compared to a measly 31 percent for Mitt Romney. The poll's sample size is relatively small — only 6,704 voters were surveyed — so its "credibility interval" is 10 percentage points. Even if it's off by that much, though, Obama still has a healthy lead. Of course, Romney has caught up with Obama in opinion polls since his big win in the first presidential debate. But is early voting still giving Obama the edge?
Early ballots could clinch victory for Obama: "Early voting is hugely significant," says Dan Hodges at Britain's Telegraph. A third of the ballots cast this year could be submitted before election day. Don't forget that in 2008, "John McCain won more votes than Barack Obama on the day of the poll itself, but Obama had already demolished him in postal ballots." This time around, Republicans are scrambling to play catch-up, "but it's too late." Obama is already halfway home.
"Romney has let his army sit in the barracks, while Obama's troops are in the field already"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The votes that count are still up for grabs: Obama's lead is "not surprising at all given the Obama campaign's focus on getting their supporters to vote early," says Rick Moran at The American Thinker. That's undeniably a plus for him, as "early voting also partially inoculates a campaign against any late gaffes." Still, the people rushing to cast ballots now "are among the most partisan voters." The Americans who could go either way will decide this contest, and they haven't picked yet.
And Democrats always do well with early voters: Obama's get-out-the-vote operation is definitely a "secret weapon" of sorts, says Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway. But remember, Democrats "tend to attract voters for whom the convenience of being able to vote" early matters. We've seen party disparities "in early voting statistics over the past two election cycles," suggesting that early birds are not a representative sample of the population as a whole. Obama shouldn't be putting any of the early-voting states in the win column just yet.
"Obama's early voting advantage"
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
Cicada-geddon: the fungus that controls insects like 'zombies'
Under The Radar Expert says bugs will develop 'hypersexualisation' despite their genitals falling off
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
'Voters know Biden and Trump all too well'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Is the Gaza war tearing US university campuses apart?
Today's Big Question Protests at Columbia University, other institutions, pit free speech against student safety
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published