Is democracy next for Cuba? Don't count on it.

There are legitimate reasons to normalize relations with Cuba. Democratization is not one of them.

Cuba
(Image credit: AP Photo/Ramon Espinosa)

The U.S. this week took another step toward normalizing its relationship with Cuba, with the State Department reopening its embassy in Havana. The conventional wisdom in foreign policy circles is that this is long overdue. Fair enough — but if you believe that opening up to Cuba will somehow lead to a democratic revolution, then you might be smoking something.

The rationale for Cuba's decades of isolation, which included a strict trade embargo, was twofold. The first was the Cold War: Cuba, with a strategic position off the coast of Florida, was allied with the Soviet Union. Memories of the Cuban Missile Crisis died hard. The second was that the pressure of an embargo might cause the regime to crumble, paving the way for democracy.

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Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry

Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry is a writer and fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. His writing has appeared at Forbes, The Atlantic, First Things, Commentary Magazine, The Daily Beast, The Federalist, Quartz, and other places. He lives in Paris with his beloved wife and daughter.