This is why it's so hard to guess who will win the New Hampshire primary
New Hampshire doesn't make a pollster's job easy: Nearly 50 percent of the state's registered voters are independent, which means they can choose to vote for either party in the primary. Additionally, Granite State voters have a reputation for being extremely picky — and staying undecided up until the very last minute. With just hours to go before polls begin to open at midnight, many still haven't made up their minds as to who they want to vote for.
Naturally, then, predicting the results of the primary can be extremely tricky. While a Monmouth University poll released Sunday shows Donald Trump with a double-digit lead, the focus has turned to the four candidates in a virtual tie for second place. Only two points or fewer separate Ohio Gov. John Kasich (14 percent), Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (13 percent), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (13 percent), and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (12 percent). On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders holds a lead of 52 percent to Hillary Clinton's 42 percent.
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Watch MSNBC's Jacob Soboroff explain the unpredictable New Hampshire primary below. Jeva Lange
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