No, secret Trump voters aren't skewing the polls toward Clinton
There probably aren't actually masses of secret Donald Trump voters who have been too shy or embarrassed to truthfully tell pollsters who they are voting for, a study by Politico/Morning Consult found. This appears to contradict the claim by Trump and his campaign manager, the Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, that reported poll numbers don't accurately reflect the support of Trump due to interviewees feeling uncomfortable telling a human pollster they back the controversial candidate.
The study looked at how voters responded in interviews over the phone versus interviews online, which offer a little more anonymity since they don't involve speaking directly to another person. The difference between the two versions of polling was only slight, and not statistically significant.
"In the primaries, we conducted a study that sought to get at why Donald Trump was performing better in online surveys than on telephone polls," Morning Consult co-founder and Chief Research Officer Kyle Dropp told Politico. "The study showed that a polling mode effect called 'social desirability bias,' — respondents didn’t want to tell a live interviewer they were voting for Trump — was at play. Our new study to assess the general election shows that not to be the case overall, although there are likely still small pockets of shy Trump voters."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
You can read more about how researchers ruled out social desirability bias in their study at Politico.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
Today's political cartoons - November 2, 2024
Cartoons Saturday's cartoons - anti-fascism, early voter turnout, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Geoff Capes obituary: shot-putter who became the World’s Strongest Man
In the Spotlight The 'mighty figure' was a two-time Commonwealth Champion and world-record holder
By The Week UK Published
-
Israel attacks Iran: a 'limited' retaliation
Talking Point Iran's humiliated leaders must decide how to respond to Netanyahu's measured strike
By The Week UK Published
-
North Korea tests ICBM, readies troops in Ukraine
Speed Read Thousands of North Korean troops are likely to join Russian action against Ukraine
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Women take center stage in campaign finale
Speed Read Harris and Trump are trading gender attacks in the final days before the election
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Supreme Court allows purge of Virginia voter rolls
Speed Read Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) is purging some 1,600 people from state voter rolls days before the election
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
'Empowered' Steve Bannon released from prison
Speed Read Bannon was set free a week before Election Day and quickly returned to his right-wing podcast to promote Trump
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Canada accuses top Modi ally of directing Sikh attacks
Speed Read Indian Home Minister Amit Shah was allegedly behind a campaign of violence and intimidation targeting Sikh separatists
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Harris makes closing case in huge rally at DC's Ellipse
Speed Read The Democratic nominee asked voters to "turn the page" on Trump's "division" and "chaos"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'I am not a Nazi,' Trump says amid MSG rally fallout
Speed Read Trump and his campaign are attempting to stem the fallout from comments made by speakers at Sunday's rally
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published