MSNBC's Steve Kornacki explains where Arizona's key Senate and governor's races stand
Arizona is still counting votes from Tuesday's elections, and it will continue doing so for several days, releasing updates every evening until the roughly 550,000 outstanding ballots are tallied. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Katie Hobbs padded their leads over Republicans Blake Masters and Kari Lake, respectively, with Thursday evening's drop. Kelly now leads by 5.6 percentage points while Hobbs leads by 1.4 points.
But the races, both of which have national ramifications, are too close to call.
Most of the outstanding votes are from Maricopa County — metro Phoenix, home to more than 60 percent of Arizona's voters — and Pima County, which includes Tucson. The big question is: What's in a batch of nearly 300,000 Maricopa County mail ballots returned on Election Day? Election officials will start releasing updates from that tranche on Friday.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"The races will hinge on whether those late-counted ballots look more like 2018 or 2020," The Associated Press reports. In the 2018 election, mail ballots dropped off on Election Day skewed Democratic. But "if voting patterns from 2020 hold, and there are signs they will given Lake's strong support among voters who cast ballots in person on Election Day, she could surge into the lead," The Arizona Republic adds.
MSNBC's Steve Kornacki ran through where the race stands Thursday night, and he suggested Kelly is on track to win while the Hobbs-Lake race is anybody's guess.
If the partisan mix is more like 2020, Lake will probably overtake Hobbs and win, Kornacki suggests. But Austin Stumpf, a former data cruncher for the Arizona Democratic Party, did his own analysis of the outstanding votes and concluded Hobbs will probably win even if the remaining votes tilt Republican.
Whatever the outcome, the long vote count is fraying nerves and fueling unfounded conservative conspiracy theories from Lake and others. But Arizona has always taken a long time to process mail ballots, which have to be scrutinized by signature matches and to make sure the voter didn't also cast a ballot in person, AP reports. "This is how things work in Arizona and have for decades," said Bill Gates, the Republican chair of the Maricopa County board of supervisors. "We are doing what we can and still maintaining accuracy," he added, and will continue working 14 to 18 hours a day until all the votes are counted.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
Mark Menzies: Tories investigate MP after 'bad people' cash claims
Speed Read Fylde MP will sit as an independent while party looks into allegations he misused campaign funds on medical expenses and blackmail pay-out
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
'Another day of chaos in DC'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
6 scenic white water rafting destinations to get your heart racing
The Week Recommends Have a rip-roaring time on the water
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
Mark Menzies: Tories investigate MP after 'bad people' cash claims
Speed Read Fylde MP will sit as an independent while party looks into allegations he misused campaign funds on medical expenses and blackmail pay-out
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Why Johnson won't just pass Ukraine aid
Speed Read The House Speaker could have sent $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine — but it would have split his caucus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Sudan on brink of collapse after a year of war
Speed Read 18 million people face famine as the country continues its bloody downward spiral
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump's first criminal trial starts with jury picks
Speed Read The former president faces charges related to hush money payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How will Israel respond to Iran's direct attack?
Speed Read Iran’s weekend attack on Israel could escalate into a wider Middle East war
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US, Israel brace for Iran retaliatory strikes
Speed Read An Iranian attack on Israel is believed to be imminent
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Congress honors real-life Rosie the Riveters
Speed Read These American women reshaped the work force during World War II
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Outgunned Ukraine could fall, US general warns
Speed Read Without more US aid, Ukraine is at risk of losing the war
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published