MSNBC's Steve Kornacki explains where Arizona's key Senate and governor's races stand

Arizona is still counting votes from Tuesday's elections, and it will continue doing so for several days, releasing updates every evening until the roughly 550,000 outstanding ballots are tallied. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Katie Hobbs padded their leads over Republicans Blake Masters and Kari Lake, respectively, with Thursday evening's drop. Kelly now leads by 5.6 percentage points while Hobbs leads by 1.4 points.
But the races, both of which have national ramifications, are too close to call.
Most of the outstanding votes are from Maricopa County — metro Phoenix, home to more than 60 percent of Arizona's voters — and Pima County, which includes Tucson. The big question is: What's in a batch of nearly 300,000 Maricopa County mail ballots returned on Election Day? Election officials will start releasing updates from that tranche on Friday.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"The races will hinge on whether those late-counted ballots look more like 2018 or 2020," The Associated Press reports. In the 2018 election, mail ballots dropped off on Election Day skewed Democratic. But "if voting patterns from 2020 hold, and there are signs they will given Lake's strong support among voters who cast ballots in person on Election Day, she could surge into the lead," The Arizona Republic adds.
MSNBC's Steve Kornacki ran through where the race stands Thursday night, and he suggested Kelly is on track to win while the Hobbs-Lake race is anybody's guess.
If the partisan mix is more like 2020, Lake will probably overtake Hobbs and win, Kornacki suggests. But Austin Stumpf, a former data cruncher for the Arizona Democratic Party, did his own analysis of the outstanding votes and concluded Hobbs will probably win even if the remaining votes tilt Republican.
Whatever the outcome, the long vote count is fraying nerves and fueling unfounded conservative conspiracy theories from Lake and others. But Arizona has always taken a long time to process mail ballots, which have to be scrutinized by signature matches and to make sure the voter didn't also cast a ballot in person, AP reports. "This is how things work in Arizona and have for decades," said Bill Gates, the Republican chair of the Maricopa County board of supervisors. "We are doing what we can and still maintaining accuracy," he added, and will continue working 14 to 18 hours a day until all the votes are counted.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
DC prosecutors lose bid to indict sandwich thrower
Speed Read Prosecutors sought to charge Sean Dunn with assaulting a federal officer
-
White House fires new CDC head amid agency exodus
Speed Read CDC Director Susan Monarez was ousted after butting heads with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccines
-
DOGE put Social Security data at risk, official says
Speed Read DOGE workers made the personal information of hundreds of millions of Americans vulnerable to identity theft
-
Court rejects Trump suit against Maryland US judges
Speed Read Judge Thomas Cullen, a Trump appointee, said the executive branch had no authority to sue the judges
-
Trump expands National Guard role in policing
Speed Read The president wants the Guard to take on a larger role in domestic law enforcement
-
Trump says he's firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Speed Read The move is likely part of Trump's push to get the central bank to cut interest rates
-
Abrego released from jail, faces Uganda deportation
Speed Read The wrongly deported Kilmar Abrego García is expected to be detained at an ICE check-in and deported to Uganda
-
Trump arms National Guard in DC, threatens other cities
speed read His next targets are Chicago, New York and Baltimore