Will the UK see a white Christmas this year?

Those dreaming of a white Christmas this year are likely to be disappointed, with current forecasts predicting rain rather than flurries of snow during the festive season. 

The Met Office has forecast "mild and breezy" weather leading up to Christmas Eve, although Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland and northwest England are likely to see wetter weather.

"Outside of advertisements and Hollywood films, idyllic snow-filled Christmas scenes are becoming increasingly rare in the UK", reported The Guardian last year. The paper's analysis found that the chances of a white Christmas have "become slimmer as the climate has grown warmer". 

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On average, snow was "much less likely to fall on Christmas Day in the 2010s than it was in the 1960s" according to analysis of data from the Met Office.

How likely is a white Christmas?

Most people imagine a snowy wonderland when they talk about a white Christmas, but the official definition used by the Met Office is “for one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of 25 December somewhere in the UK”.

Snowflakes have fallen on Christmas Day in the UK 39 times in the last 53 years, according to the Met’s records.

By the above standards, the last white Christmas was technically 2021, when 6% of the country’s stations recorded snowfall. However, less than 1% reported snow on the ground.

Those hoping for a thicker blanket of snow have been left wanting. The last time the UK celebrated widespread snow was in 2010, when 83% of weather stations recorded snow on the ground, the highest number ever recorded. The year before, 57% of stations reported snow on the ground.

Forecasters say we are generally less likely to see snow in December than in the following three months. On average, snow or sleet falls for fewer than four days in December, compared with more than five days in January and February and just over four days in March.

“White Christmases were more frequent in the 18th and 19th centuries, even more so before the change of calendar in 1752 which effectively pushed Christmas Day back by 12 days,” says the Met Office.

It is now “extremely unusual” to experience a white Christmas like that of 2010.

Air temperatures do not need to drop below zero for snow to fall. In fact, the heaviest snowfalls tend to occur between 0C and 2C, as the slightly warmer air causes snowflakes to melt and stick together forming bigger, heavier flakes.

Is there any chance of a white Christmas in 2023?

Those waiting for a Christmas miracle shouldn't entirely give up hope. The Met Office's long-range forecasts are subject to change, and the most accurate forecasts will be issued in the five days before Christmas. 

Currently, the Met Office predicts the weather for Christmas Day and the following week to be "unsettled compared to the preceding settled spell with bands of rain crossing the UK with brighter conditions and showers in between".

But the forecast says that "the chance of a colder spell of weather, with hazards such as snow and ice, does increase later in December and into the New Year period". Overall, however, the weather is likely to be "generally mild and wet".

According to bookmakers Ladbrokes, Newcastle is the UK city most likely to see snow on Christmas Day at 5/2, but London, Birmingham and Cardiff are the least likely cities at 8/1.