North Korea: Bloody purge shocks the region

North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un underscored his regime’s weakness last week with his “unusually public and hurried” execution of his uncle, said the JoongAng Ilbo (South Korea) in an editorial. Officials usually get replaced quietly, yet images of the arrest and trial of No. 2 official Jang Song Thaek were blasted across state media. A detailed report, headlined “Explosion of Soaring Rage of Millions of Soldiers and People, Traitor for All Ages Firmly Punished,” said Jang had built his own “little kingdom” and was planning a military coup. If true, that suggests “a growing resentment of the third-generation leader among the party, military, and government.” Jang’s followers are estimated to number around 25,000 officers and officials. His execution “could be a prelude to a very bloody purge.”

Or was it a message to China? asked Kim Tae-gyu inThe Korea Times (South Korea). Of all North Korean officials, Jang was most closely linked to the country’s largest neighbor. “He meticulously built a rapport with Beijing and has maintained good relations with it for a long time,” one analyst notes, cutting deals with Chinese mining companies and other industries. In the two years since he took power, Kim himself, in contrast, “has yet to meet his Chinese counterpart.” The young leader’s purge of Jang may amount to “a flat rejection of China’s influence.”

There could be a much more mundane explanation, said Choi Hyun-june in The Hankyoreh (South Korea). Jang was always an outlier within North Korea’s power structure. He was neither of the Baekdu bloodline (a direct descendent of founder Kim Il Sung) nor a princeling (a descendent of the anti-Japanese guerrillas). Instead, he rose to power by marrying one of Kim Il Sung’s daughters. One of our sources said Kim Jong Un purged Jang “to consolidate a single-ruler regime” based on the bloodline, with the princelings’ support. We also hear that the idea to oust Jang came not from Kim, but from his half-sister, Kim Sul Song, who was their father’s favorite child and wields considerable influence over her brother. If this analysis is correct, purging Jang changes nothing in North Korea’s foreign policy, and its neighbors need not fear any disruption.

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But a weak leader is a dangerous leader, said the Asahi Shimbun (Japan). Kim “still doesn’t have the solid power base that his father and grandfather had.” He will do anything to prevent dissent within the ranks of top officials, including staging an international incident. “Japan and other concerned countries should brace themselves for possible provocations from the unpredictable regime,” such as missile launches and nuclear tests. South Korea is planning for the worst, said Song Sang-ho in The Korea Herald (South Korea). President Park Geun-hye has directed security officials to keep close contact with U.S. officials and send out more border patrols. “The government should come up with measures to prepare itself against all scenarios,” she said, “and strengthen the readiness posture of the military and police.”