Book of the week: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t by Nate Silver

Statistics whiz Nate Silver offers an engaging tour of the art and science of statistical forecasting.

(Penguin, $28)

“We live in an era of ‘Big Data,’” said Burton G. Malkiel in The Wall Street Journal. As statistics whiz Nate Silver notes, our digital age produces 2.5 quintillion bytes of new information each day. It’s thus amazing that in certain fields, professional prognosticators remain no better than a coin flip in predicting future outcomes. Enter Silver, who shot to fame when his polling website FiveThirtyEight.com proved startlingly accurate in its predictions about the 2008 presidential election. His new book offers a whirlwind tour of the art and science of forecasting everything from hurricanes to poker hands, and offers tips on how to separate meaningful patterns—the “signal”—from mere distractions. You might not agree with all his conclusions, but Silver’s “breezy style” makes statistics analysis engaging.

Subscribe to The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Yet the local weatherman looks like Nostra-damus compared with some political pundits, said Jordan Ellenberg in The Boston Globe. Studying predictions made on TV’s The McLaughlin Group, Silver found that the show’s panelists are right less than 50 percent of the time. And “boy, does Silver do a number on economists” for failing to predict the 2008 financial crisis. But he never suggests that their failure, or similar mistakes, can be avoided through “a rigorous adherence to cold, objective math.” Surprisingly, he believes that human intuition has an indispensable role to play, providing a check on the math just as the math provides a check on our hidden biases.