Could Texas' mega-drought last until 2020?

A climatologist sparks debate by predicting that the Lone Star State's historic drought could persist for another decade

Sailboats in a Texas Marina sit on land where they once floated in water: More than 95 percent of the state is experiencing drought and experts say it could last a decade.
(Image credit: David Woo/Dallas Morning News/Corbis)

Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon is predicting that Texas' devastating drought could last until 2020. The dangerously dry conditions have already caused $5.2 billion in damage to crops and livestock, along with a host of "out-of-control" wildfires. More than 95 percent of the state is experiencing either "severe" or "exceptional" drought, making this what many see as Texas' worst drought since a seven-year ordeal that ended in 1957. When will Texas see rain again?

It might really take a decade: "We've had drought in 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009, though none as deep and widespread as this year's," says Brantley Hargrove at the Dallas Observer. The unusually warm Atlantic combined with a cooling pattern in the Pacific has created a perfect storm of drought conditions. And sadly, this unfortunate syncing of weather patterns is unlikely to change for many, many years, so "don't count on significant rain anytime soon."

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