Russia is now NATO’s friend

last updated 8 January 2015

Could Russia join NATO? asked Vladimir Soloviov in Kommersant. Given the “breakthroughs” at last week’s NATO-Russia summit in Portugal, the idea “no longer seems quite so fantastical.” First, NATO adopted a new strategic framework that officially states that the Western alliance no longer considers Russia a threat and will instead cooperate with the country on mutual security. Then the two parties issued a joint document outlining their total agreement on how to deal with all current and hypothetical threats, including international terrorism, Afghanistan, piracy, and weapons of mass destruction. The only point of contention was missile defense, and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev “came up with a sensational idea” to find common ground. He proposed a joint anti-ballistic missile shield for Europe and Russia, with each partner helping to shield the other—a proposal both sides agreed to discuss over the next few months. No wonder NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen called the summit “historic” and a “fresh start” in relations with Moscow.

Not so fast, said Dmitry Trenin in The Moscow Times. Let’s not overstate where relations between Russia and NATO stand today. “They have just stepped away from the brink.” A mere two years ago, after NATO agreed to a path for membership for former Soviet republics Ukraine and Georgia, tensions erupted, followed by a war between Russia and Georgia; Russia withdrew from NATO meetings in a huff. And on the other side, while NATO as an institution may not consider itself Russia’s enemy, certain NATO countries—particularly Poland, Hungary, and the Baltics—“still regard Russia as a potential threat to themselves.” It will take plenty of cooperation—practical, side-by-side military cooperation—for the two sides to truly make the “transformation from past enmity to future friendship.”

That’s where Medvedev’s proposal for joint missile defense comes in, said Kira Latukhina in Rossiiskaya Gazeta. Treating the entire Euro-Atlantic region as one shared space that both NATO and Russia are responsible for defending from missile attack will go a long way toward building trust. Russian and NATO officials would have to share intelligence about threat assessments and share responsibility for launching anti-ballistic missiles to combat any incoming weapons, whether from Iran, North Korea, China, or some terrorist group. At the same time, Medvedev noted that it is absolutely necessary to consider how the new ABM defense system will affect nuclear parity. “After all, if the nuclear balance changes, an arms race will begin.”