Iraq: A pullout deadline looms

Even before Barack Obama takes office in January, said David Ignatius in The Washington Post, he’ll have to decide what to do about Iraq. On Dec. 31, the U.N. mandate that legalizes our military presence there will expire, and negotiations between the Bush administration and the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki are “deadlocked.” The Iraqis, who want to regain control of their country, are insisting on a firm 2011 departure date. But the Bush White House has been pushing to keep that deadline flexible, with the option of staying longer if conditions on the ground warrant it. Without a new “Status of Forces Agreement,” our troops will have to return to their bases on New Year’s Day, powerless to do anything. If that happens, there will be no one to keep the growing tensions among the Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds from erupting into violence.

The Iraqis understand that risk, said Trudy Rubin in The Philadelphia Inquirer. So why can’t we come to an agreement? Iraqi nationalism is growing, and power has apparently gone to al-Maliki’s head. Having finally gotten his country under control, the Iraqi leader is now posturing “as the nationalist Arab hero who ousted the Americans,” and setting a firm withdrawal date is part of that narrative. Al-Maliki also has figured that he might as well wait for the U.S. elections, “believing a President Obama might be more malleable” than President Bush.

He’d better not be, said Robert Kaplan in the Los Angeles Times. Militants may engineer more bombings and sectarian attacks to see if Obama will say, “See, I told you the surge didn’t work,” and accelerate our pullout. But that “would quietly telegraph weakness to our enemies around the world.” Actually, that outcome is unlikely, said The Economist. Despite his public posturing, al-Maliki knows he may “still need American firepower three years hence to suppress insurgents or defend his borders.” So the door is open for Obama to negotiate an agreement that gives Iraq back to the Iraqis and helps al-Maliki save face, while maintaining the option of keeping U.S. troops there as long as the Iraqis—not the Americans—deem necessary. It’s all part of recognizing “that Iraq is once again a sovereign country, one that has a powerful sense of wounded pride and some prickly sensibilities.”

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