Iran: Countdown to World War III?

Iran: Countdown to World War III?

Trying to understand George W. Bush “is often a fruitless exercise,” said Joe Conason in Salon.com. But our incoherent president hit new heights of absurdity last week, with his “apocalyptic” warning about Iran. “I’ve told people that if you’re interested in avoiding World War III,” he declared, “it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.” It’s not the knowledge the Iranians lack, of course, but the means, which is why the U.S. wants to stop Iran from enriching weapons-grade uranium. As if to make it clear that Bush’s saber-rattling was no mistake, said Sheryl Gay Stolberg in The New York Times, Vice President Dick Cheney quickly followed up by declaring that Iran would face “serious consequences” if it didn’t stop enriching uranium. “We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon,” Cheney said. It was the strongest language the White House has used yet, leaving the world wondering: Are Bush and Cheney bluffing, or is war really in the offing?

Either way, this is sheer insanity, said the Los Angeles Times in an editorial. Yes, it’s very worrisome that Iran is “accelerating its nuclear weapons research” under the guise of a civilian energy program. But our best intelligence says that Iran won’t have nukes for another eight years. Bush’s previous threats have only made Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his country’s nervous mullahs more paranoid and more belligerent. “Tehran appears to have concluded that the Bush administration is so implacably hostile that negotiations are futile.” The U.S., meanwhile, is in no position to be making threats; with our troops bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, opening “a third front against Iran” would be disastrous, and the public would not support it. Bush should be negotiating with Tehran, not alarming everyone with blithe talk of World War III.

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A diplomatic solution would be preferable, said Niall Ferguson in the Los Angeles Times, but “the chances of such an outcome are dwindling fast.” The Iranians have spent the past year scorning warnings from the international community, and are currently enriching uranium as fast as they can. A pre-emptive strike may be the only way to stop them. Israel recently provided a perfect model, neatly destroying a suspected nuclear plant in Syria last month with a surgical air attack. Damascus’ failure to retaliate offers a valuable lesson for President Bush: “You can do this, and do it with impunity.” If Ahmadinejad thinks Bush and Cheney are bluffing, he should remember this: So did Saddam.