The need for foreign oil

How much oil do we import?

Far more than we did during the oil shortage of the 1970s. When the Arab oil embargo shocked the nation in 1973, America was getting 35 percent of its oil from abroad. An alarmed President Nixon established energy self-sufficiency as a national goal “by the end of this decade.” Nearly two decades later, the U.S. imports about 55 percent of its oil. The main contributor to this growing thirst: the fleet of 200 million cars, minivans, pickups, and sport utility vehicles now on the road. The popularity of gas-guzzling SUVs, in particular, has dragged the combined fuel efficiency of American vehicles back to its 1980 level. As American motorists are burning more fuel, the country’s oil wells are producing less. That’s a bad combination. If current trends hold true, the country will have to import 70 percent of its supply by the year 2020.

Does oil affect U.S. foreign policy?

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Without a doubt. The U.S. fought the Gulf War to prevent Saddam Hussein from annexing Kuwait—an act of aggression that would have given him nearly a quarter of the world’s oil reserves. If Hussein were not stopped, the U.S. feared, he might also roll his tanks into Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia sits atop half the Middle East’s known reserves, with about 262 billion barrels. That’s enough to last for at least 80 years. Last year, the Saudis provided close to 10 percent of the oil the U.S. consumed. The Saudi royal family is friendly with the U.S., but faces constant pressure from Islamic fundamentalists to distance itself from the West. Today, the U.S. does have many other suppliers: We import nearly 10 percent of our oil from Canada, about 9 percent from Venezuela, and about 7 percent from Mexico. But any disruption in Saudi supplies would throw the international oil market into chaos, and lead to huge price increases. Other major producers, including Iraq, Iran, and Libya, have a history of deep animosity toward America, which makes U.S. access to Middle East oil seem even more precarious.

Is there oil near Afghanistan?

An ocean of it. Scientists believe Central Asia—particularly the region surrounding the Caspian Sea in the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan—is sitting atop an oil field as vast as any outside Saudi Arabia and Iraq. But a pipeline would be necessary to carry the oil to a sea port. Given the region’s political instability and vulnerability to terrorism, a pipeline is not likely to be built in the foreseeable future. For now, the oil will remain in the ground.

What if foreign oil were cut off?

For a short time, the U.S. could get by. The federal government has stowed away 570 million barrels of oil in salt caverns near the Gulf of Mexico in Texas and Louisiana. That reserve tank, when paired with domestically produced oil, would be enough to keep the nation’s cars and factories running for about two months. Some politicians have suggested topping off the reserves, which can hold up to 700 million barrels, or even increasing their capacity to 1 billion barrels.

Can the U.S. wean itself off foreign oil?

Only slowly, and with considerable pain. The Bush administration’s energy plan includes a proposal to permit oil exploration and development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). Government scientists say their best guess is that the refuge could yield as many as 10 billion barrels of oil (skeptics think the total is closer to 3 billion barrels). “The mid-range estimates for reserves in ANWR are the equivalent of 10 years of oil from the Persian Gulf,” Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said in The Wall Street Journal. “That’s 10 years to let diplomacy work in the event of a serious disruption in supply.” But while the Alaskan oil would reduce U.S. dependence on foreign sources, it would not come close to eliminating it. Alaskan wells would likely yield about 1 million barrels per day, and the U.S. already burns 19 million barrels a day. Even if drilling were approved tomorrow, the first drop of oil probably wouldn’t flow until the year 2012.

What about conservation?

In theory, it could have a major impact. But conservation isn’t politically popular, and the Bush administration has shown little interest in pressing energy efficiency on the public. One reason for that reluctance is that gas-guzzling SUVs have helped save the U.S. auto industry, and consumers clearly like them. This year, Americans are expected to buy a record 3.5 million of these heavy, high-riding vehicles. SUVs use 33 percent more gasoline, on average, than regular cars. Just phasing in a 25 percent increase in fuel efficiency for all vehicles over five years would save more than 1 million barrels of oil a day—about as much as ANWR is expected to produce. If all motorists kept their vehicles tuned, and their tires properly inflated, that would save an additional 1 million barrels a day.

Are there alternatives to oil?