A vacation in Cuba?

When did the U.S. impose the embargo?

The United States first limited trade with Cuba in October 1960, after the triumphant revolutionary leader Fidel Castro nationalized American and British oil companies and other businesses. As relations with the U.S. deteriorated, Castro formed an alliance with the communist government of the Soviet Union. The U.S. then refused to buy its quota of 700,000 tons of Havana’s sugar. The Soviets stepped up and bought it all. A frustrated President Kennedy responded by banning virtually all business with the island, including the importation of goods made elsewhere with Cuban materials.

How has Cuba adjusted?

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For decades, the country got by largely because of a $5 billion annual subsidy from the Soviet Union. With the Soviet collapse 10 years ago, the Cuban government began experimenting with new ways of making money. Foreign companies from Europe, Canada, and Latin America were invited to open joint ventures with the government, most of them luxury hotels and other businesses designed to attract foreign tourists. In addition, Castro permitted Cubans to launch a few types of private, small businesses, such as restaurants. Castro also made it legal to have and spend American dollars. Relatives living abroad send Cubans $500 million to $800 million a year now, according to U.S. government estimates. To get its hands on that money and help pay for imports, the Castro regime now sells scarce consumer goods in dollar-only stores.

Why does the embargo continue?

Primarily because of politics. The U.S. trades with China, which is also a communist nation, has a far worse human rights record, and recently imprisoned American citizens and shot down a U.S. plane. The difference between Cuba and China is the powerful political pressure exerted by anti-Castro Cuban exiles in Florida. The well-funded Cuban American National Foundation lobbies Congress to great effect, and in Florida, the Cuban community goes to the polls in force to punish any friendliness toward Castro. The Clinton administration’s handling of the Elias Gonzalez case, in fact, hurt Al Gore so badly in Florida that it may have cost him the presidential election. Even the Cuban foundation, however, has become divided recently, as younger members search for a more open approach and older exiles resign in disgust.

What is Bush’s position?

The president supports strict enforcement of the embargo. His administration has begun cracking down on Americans who travel illegally to the island. Until this summer, the government was sending out about 19 letters a month threatening to fine travelers who visited the island. Since May, however, the Treasury Department has mailed out nearly 150 letters per month, warning of possible penalties as high as $55,000 for sidestepping the restrictions.

Have the sanctions hurt Castro?

Critics say the embargo actually has helped Castro, by letting him blame the U.S. for economic problems caused by a faulty communist system. The embargo has certainly fallen short of its goal to oust the dictator, who has survived U.S. enmity through the presidencies of Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and now George W. Bush. But while the effect on Castro is uncertain, there’s no doubt the embargo hurts Cuba. The Cuban government says it loses billions compensating for the embargo by importing goods from nations that are farther away, and by not being able to sell its products to the U.S. The U.S. International Trade Commission estimates that trade between the U.S. and Cuba would reach $3 billion to $5 billion a year within five years if the two countries were to normalize relations.

Will the embargo end when Castro dies?

Not necessarily. The U.S. government says the restrictions will continue as long as Cuba is ruled by a communist dictatorship. Castro’s immediate successor is expected to be his brother, Raul Castro, who is in charge of the island’s army. But Raul Castro is 70 years old, just five years younger than Fidel, and he lacks his older brother’s charisma. Some diplomats, and many exiles in Miami, predict a free-for-all the minute Fidel dies, with various factions fighting for power. Local governments in south Florida have drawn up contingency plans for potential disasters, ranging from riotous celebrations in Miami’s streets to a flood of refugees. The possibility of post-Castro chaos has prompted some critics of the embargo to urge more open relations with Cuba now, to expose the nation to democratic ideas. Openness, the argument goes, is the only way to create a “soft landing,” or gradual transition to democracy, instead of a violent struggle for power.

A Havana vacation