Opinion

The dangers of Democratic complacency

You know what they say about pride coming before the fall...

It's only mid-April, but with "Why Hillary Clinton Is Probably Going to Win the 2016 Election," New York's Jonathan Chait has zoomed into the lead in the race to win this year's chutzpah-in-punditry award.

Don't get me wrong. Even with the general election still 19 interminable months away (that's 571 days, but who's counting?), Chait makes a strong case for a Clinton victory. But I still wish he hadn't written the column. The last thing Democrats need is to be lulled into complacency. Yes, they have a number of demographic advantages going into the next election cycle. But that doesn't mean Clinton will coast to victory.

Chait relies heavily on a new Pew poll, and much of his analysis is sound. Democrats are indeed likely to benefit from two demographic trends: the "emerging Democratic majority" (which is a product of liberal-leaning segments of the population growing at a faster rate than conservative-leaning ones) and the replacement of more conservative older voters by more liberal younger voters.

But Chait fails to note a finding in the Pew poll that should give him pause — namely, that 39 percent of the public now identifies as independent. That's the highest level in over 75 years of polling.

It's true that many of these independents are "closet partisans" — functionally Republicans or Democrats in their ideological leanings. But not all of them are, and even some of those who lean one way or the other are persuadable by the other side under the right circumstances and by the right candidate.

This appears not to trouble Chait because, as he notes at the conclusion of his column, he has faith that the Democrats are the only "non-crazy" party in the U.S. at the moment, and thus the only party that will appeal to non-crazy voters.

I submit that this might make a decisive difference if the GOP ends up nominating Ben Carson — which it won't. It may also prove important if they go for Ted Cruz — which is highly unlikely. And it may even have some effect if they put up Scott Walker or Rand Paul.

But bland-and-boring Jeb Bush? Or Cuban-American pretty boy Marco Rubio? I don't think so.

Sure, Chait — a loyal Obama supporter and merciless scourge of the right — thinks the GOP nominee doesn't matter, because the party (as displayed most vividly by its congressional brinksmanship since 2011) is fundamentally nuts. Even a temperamentally moderate Republican president would have to ride the Tea Party tiger while in office.

I largely agree. I just doubt most voters will. If Republicans can manage to nominate a candidate who sounds halfway reasonable, Hillary Clinton will have a real fight on her hands.

Democrats are going to have to work hard to prevail in 2016. The left's sharpest minds would be well advised not to encourage Democrats to deny this fact.

More From...

Picture of Damon LinkerDamon Linker
Read All
A curtain falls
A stage.
Opinion

A curtain falls

Trump loses his grip on a Trumpified GOP
Donald Trump.
Opinion

Trump loses his grip on a Trumpified GOP

Letter from a demoralized Pennsylvania voter
PA candidates.
Opinion

Letter from a demoralized Pennsylvania voter

Let people vent to SCOTUS on abortion
Brett Kavanaugh.
Opinion

Let people vent to SCOTUS on abortion

Recommended

Texas is gearing up for Attorney General Ken Paxton's summer impeachment trial
Ken Paxton
Non Sine Die

Texas is gearing up for Attorney General Ken Paxton's summer impeachment trial

Biden's reelection calculus
President Joe Biden
Briefing

Biden's reelection calculus

The risks and rewards of retail politics
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in New Hampshire
Behind the scenes

The risks and rewards of retail politics

What's in Biden and McCarthy's deal to suspend the debt limit
Kevin McCarthy
Art of the Deal

What's in Biden and McCarthy's deal to suspend the debt limit

Most Popular

Disney hits back against DeSantis
Entranceway to Walt Disney World.
Feature

Disney hits back against DeSantis

What the shifting religious landscape means for American politics
Ballot box
Talking point

What the shifting religious landscape means for American politics

Censoring ideas and rewriting history
Copies of banned books from various states and school systems.
Briefing

Censoring ideas and rewriting history