The smoke-filled room that could oust Joe Biden
Here's a possible way Joe Biden isn't the Democratic nominee


Never was former Vice President Joe Biden the 2020 dream. He promised electability and familiarity, which turned out to be good enough for a plurality of Democratic voters in the early primaries.
But now that every other Democratic contender has dropped out and dutifully lined up behind the presumptive nominee, that choice might be sitting less comfortably. Biden is campaigning from his basement, giving interviews in which he occasionally moves past gaffes into total incoherence, raising questions about his mental fitness. Worst of all, evidence for a sexual assault allegation against him begins to mount.
Add that to pandemic-induced uncertainty about when and how the Democratic National Convention will be held and it's fair to ask: Is Biden definitely the nominee? Right-wing commentators like Glenn Beck and Tucker Carlson as well as former Bernie Sanders Press Secretary Briahna Joy Gray have speculated Biden will be replaced on the ticket, but how could that happen? Is there a path to nominating someone else?
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Before the convention, which is currently rescheduled for August, the answer is probably no. Suspended primary elections have already raised concerns about abrogation of transparent, democratic processes — as have elections that weren't suspended. While Democratic delegates will understand the need to modify normal convention procedure to avoid spreading COVID-19, their understanding won't be unlimited. Sweeping changes to the nominating process would be suspect, and if the process continues as anticipated, Biden will very likely be selected as the nominee on the first ballot.
So far, Biden has 1,406 of 1,991 delegates needed to win that initial vote, and those are delegates pledged (by strong custom, though not law) to Biden by primary and caucus results. Between now and August, there will be 22 more primaries whose outcomes will pledge another 1,368 delegates. Biden has no remaining challengers campaigning against him and needs fewer than half those delegates to win the first ballot. Unless the Democratic Party, wildly improbably, tosses its entire rule book out the window, Biden will take the nomination at the convention in a single vote.
Ah, but what then? In the waning days of the Sanders campaign, I argued endorsements from superdelegates — prominent Democratic leaders and elected officials — showed party bosses had decided Biden was their guy. I don't expect to see those endorsements disappear, not publicly. But is the party leadership's commitment to Biden as solid as it once was?
Suppose, plausibly, it is not. Suppose they don't want to run a historically elderly candidate amid a pandemic that is deadliest for the elderly? Suppose Tara Reade's assault accusation and Biden's tendency to misspeak even from the low-pressure, high-preparation environment of his own basement further fuel the "two senile sex offenders" narrative of this election? Suppose enthusiasm continues to grow for running New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), whom one poll found 56 percent of Democrats would prefer to Biden as their nominee? (Cuomo says he won't do it, but that could be an obligatory performance of deference to a party elder.)
"The presidential debates are in effect already occurring daily between" Cuomo and Trump, Craig Snyder, a former Republican Senate chief of staff, argued in The Philadelphia Inquirer. We don't have to suppose Democratic Party leaders have noticed; they undoubtedly have.
So if they wanted to replace Biden (whether with Cuomo, the veep nominee, or some arrangement of both) Democratic leadership could wait until after the nomination to do so. Then, as they did with Democratic vice presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton in 1972, they could ask Biden to step aside, citing his health.
Biden's agreement is a long shot. Eagleton continued his Senate career after leaving the 1972 ticket over pressure about his mental health, but he was a much younger man. At Biden's age, stepping aside would end his political career for good. Relinquishing the nomination would therefore suggest he expects an embarrassing loss and ruined legacy if he stays.
With Biden out, the Democratic National Committee, a group of around 350 which is "composed of the chairs and vice-chairs of each state Democratic Party Committee and over 200 members elected by Democrats in all 57 states and the territories," would vote to select a new nominee.
Such a switch could be made any time between the convention nomination and Election Day. Because we technically vote for Electoral College members rather than presidential candidates, it may be, as Vox proposes, that Electors could simply transfer their vote from the old Democratic nominee to the new one regardless of what was printed on the ballot. But the legal situation is uncertain and varies from state to state. "For instance," notes FiveThirtyEight, "Michigan's law requires an Elector to vote for the ticket named on the ballot whereas Florida's rules say that an Elector is to 'vote for the candidates of the party that he or she was nominated to represent.'" That means a sooner swap, allowing more states to print the new name on the ballot, would be better. Yet court battles would be inevitable with the ever-litigious Trump involved.
The likeliest outcome remains the most straightforward: That Biden will be the Democratic nominee and will face Trump in November. But if Democratic leaders did want to change horses midstream, late August or September could well be when they make their move.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Bonnie Kristian was a deputy editor and acting editor-in-chief of TheWeek.com. She is a columnist at Christianity Today and author of Untrustworthy: The Knowledge Crisis Breaking Our Brains, Polluting Our Politics, and Corrupting Christian Community (forthcoming 2022) and A Flexible Faith: Rethinking What It Means to Follow Jesus Today (2018). Her writing has also appeared at Time Magazine, CNN, USA Today, Newsweek, the Los Angeles Times, and The American Conservative, among other outlets.
-
Today's political cartoons - May 4, 2025
Cartoons Sunday's cartoons - deportation, Canadian politeness, and more
-
5 low approval cartoons about poll numbers
Cartoons Artists take on fake pollsters, shared disapproval, and more
-
Deepfakes and impostors: the brave new world of AI jobseeking
In The Spotlight More than 80% of large companies use AI in their hiring process, but increasingly job candidates are getting in on the act
-
Kamala Harris steps back on center stage
IN THE SPOTLIGHT In her first major speech since Donald Trump took office, the former presidential candidate took solid aim at this administration as speculation grows about her future
-
How might Democratic fundraising survive Trump's ActBlue investigation?
Today's Big Question Critics say the president is weaponizing the Justice Department
-
David Hogg challenges Democrats' 'ineffective' old guard
Talking Points He plans to fund primary challenges to Democratic incumbents
-
With Dick Durbin's retirement, where do Democrats go from here?
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION The number two Senate Democrat's pending departure is a pivotal moment for a party looking for leadership in the second Trump administration
-
'From his election as pope in 2013, Francis sought to reform'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
-
The anger fueling the Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez barnstorming tour
Talking Points The duo is drawing big anti-Trump crowds in red states
-
13 potential 2028 presidential candidates for both major parties
In Depth A rare open primary for both parties has a large number of people considering a run for president
-
Biden slams Trump's Social Security cuts
Speed Read In his first major public address since leaving office, Biden criticized the Trump administration's 'damage' and 'destruction'