Is Arizona next on the Trump indictment trend?

With a historic suite of four criminal indictments now under his belt, former President Donald Trump's schedule for the coming year seems full to the point of bursting, thanks to a cavalcade of pending court dates, presidential campaign stops and the possibility that he may see the inside of a jail cell. Nevertheless, as a new investigation into efforts to subvert the results of the 2020 presidential election begins to pick up steam, there's a growing chorus of experts and commentators predicting that members of Trump's inner circle, and perhaps even Trump himself, could be facing yet another slate of criminal charges.

This time it could be in Arizona, where Democratic Attorney General Kris Mayes is probing into a "fake elector" effort by Republicans similar to that which factored heavily in Fulton County, Georgia, District Attorney Fani Willis' recent indictment of Trump and others. Could Arizona become the next legal front in the ongoing effort to hold Trump accountable for his alleged electoral misconduct?

What the commentators said

"We are investigating the fake electors situation," Mayes confirmed during a press conference earlier this month, tentatively comparing her work to "what just happened in Georgia and in Michigan," where multiple officials have been charged for their involvement in plans to submit slates of unaccredited electors, according to Arizona's 12 News. While promising a "thorough and professional investigation," Mayes cautioned patience in light of the other states' indictments, insisting the work would be done "on our timetable as justice demands." As CBS News noted, questions of "how long the investigation has been underway, its status and its scope" are, for the time being, "not clear."

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The secretive nature of Mayes' work hasn't stopped Arizona's current Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs and her Republican predecessor, Jan Brewer, from predicting charges. Calling herself an "advocate for holding folks involved in trying to overturn the will of the voters in the 2020 election accountable," Hobbs told Phoenix's Fox 10 that "this is part of that" while stressing "accountability at the top level." Brewer offered a similar forecast, telling the network that she expects Mayes is "going to move forward on some kind of disciplinary action." Former GOP gubernatorial nominee and potential 2024 senate candidate Kari Lake also predicted an Arizona indictment against Trump "ASAP," alleging without proof that the Biden administration has, and will likely use, the authority to "order" Hobbs and Mayes to file state charges.

Former Arizona GOP Chair Kelli Ward is of "particular interest to investigators as of late," Rolling Stone reported, with one source telling the publication that investigators are "moving aggressively" on that front. Prosecutors are also looking into former Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani, focusing on a "number of notable meetings and phone calls, including a late November 2020 meeting with members of Arizona's state legislature convened by the Trump legal team," according to a separate Rolling Stone report. It was at this meeting that Trump associates allegedly "aired bogus claims of voter fraud and lobbied lawmakers to 'take over' the state's selection of electors."

What next?

"Many of us perked up" after Arizona was "mentioned" several times in Willis' Georgia indictment, University of Arizona Law Professor Christopher Griffin told KGUN, although he downplayed any direct link. Arizona has also played a major role in Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith's investigation and subsequent indictment of Trump, including text messages obtained by Talking Points Memo that detailed how "Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel and former Arizona Republican Party Chairwoman Kelli Ward were among those who played key roles in elements of the alleged conspiracy from the moment Smith said it began." While Arizona state officials have publicly insisted their investigation is focused mainly on the fake electors conspiracy, investigators' interest in Giuliani suggests prosecutors are moving "higher up on the food chain" than the fake electors themselves, Rolling Stone reported. Still, with the investigation in its early phase, it's unclear "whether the state attorney general's office intends to mount as aggressive and far-reaching" a probe as Willis' in Georgia. For now, if Arizona officials are looking into Trump himself, it seems like any action on that front is a ways away.