When the US agreed to normalise relations with the oil-rich yet desperately poor South American nation of Venezuela, it was with the proviso that Nicolás Maduro would hold "free and fair elections".
Most of the world does not recognise the legitimacy of the presidency of Maduro, who inherited power from the late revolutionary Hugo Chávez in 2013 and whose re-election in 2018 was widely condemned as fraudulent. But an agreement reached last October may give Venezuelans the chance to vote the unpopular incumbent out of the Miraflores Palace on 28 July.
How is the election campaign going? The authorities disqualified hugely popular opposition leader MarÃa Corina Machado, who had won more than 90% of the vote in the primaries, on "trumped-up grounds", said The Economist. Machado has since "ceded all her political capital" to proxy Edmundo González Urrutia, a 74-year-old diplomat who "until now had moved behind the scenes of power", said El PaÃs, and who leads in the polls by 20% to 30%.
For the first time since 2013, the Maduro government "looks scared", said Foreign Policy. "It fears democracy," wrote Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House. About two-thirds of Venezuelans say they would support any opposition candidate against Maduro. "Stealing this contest won't be as easy as it was for Maduro in 2017, 2018 or 2020."
Will the vote be 'free and fair'? The regime's internal polling shows that in a fair vote, Maduro would be "totally doomed", a source told The Economist. But he "appears determined to cling to power – through intimidation".
Maduro controls most state institutions, including the courts, electoral authorities, army and much of the media – "not to mention violent paramilitary gangs", said The New York Times (NYT). And there is "widespread doubt" that he would accept an opposition victory.
What are the stakes? If Maduro claims victory, Venezuela will "remain paralysed", said El PaÃs. A second presidency for a hostile Donald Trump would "complicate things even further". Also at stake is the future of Venezuela's oil reserves – the largest in the world – and the strength of its alliances with China, Russia and Iran. |