The far-right Alternative für Deutschland party is on course to take control of a German state for the first time, blasting through a post-war consensus designed to keep extremists out of power.
With polls suggesting that the AfD will win 40% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt in next week’s state election, it is now “completely undemocratic to permanently exclude” the former fringe movement, said left-wing party leader Sahra Wagenknecht. “The firewall has failed.”
What did the commentators say? Germany’s political “firewall”, the Brandmauer, is an agreement between mainstream parties to refuse to cooperate or work with extremists. It has succeeded in keeping the AfD out of power at state and federal level until now, but has done nothing to harm the party’s popularity. If anything, being excluded has contributed to the AfD’s rise in national polls, where it now has a clear lead over its mainstream rivals.
Maintaining the firewall has created a “hollowed-out centre”, said politics professor Alexander Görlach in Jacobin magazine. Building majorities that exclude the far-right “has led to uncomfortable compromises”: parties on the left and centre-right have made coalitions “born of necessity rather than conviction”. Not only has this alienated some voters, and even driven them towards extremist alternatives, it has also blurred the distinctions between mainstream parties, reinforcing the AfD’s line that they are carbon-copy “cartel parties”.
The Brandmauer also means the AfD has “no incentive” to moderate its policies in order to gain power, as some other populists in Europe have done, said The Economist. Behind the firewall, the party is protected “from the disappointment that accountability in a democracy implies”, said Christian Stecker, a political scientist at TU Darmstadt.
What next? If current polling proves accurate, the AfD could secure an absolute majority in the Saxony-Anhalt election on 6 September – a rarity under Germany’s proportional-voting system. The consequences of that “would be far-reaching”, said the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. It would not only “create a shock to the ideological spectrum” but also, for the first time, enable a far-right party in Germany “to put some of its agenda into practice”.
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