On July 4, the United Kingdom will hold its first general election since 2019. All 650 seats in the House of Commons are up for grabs, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years, look like long shots to retain their parliamentary majority. Public opinion polling has consistently shown the opposition Labour Party in the lead. Sunak's decision in May to call the snap election months earlier than required by law was likely made to capitalize on positive economic data, which Conservatives hope will turn around their flagging fortunes and prevent a Labour takeover.Â
How does the electoral system work? The U.K.'s lawmakers are elected individually by regional constituencies, as with the U.S. district system. To win a constituency, candidates need only win the most votes, even if it's a plurality rather than a majority. Unlike the U.S., the U.K. has more than two parties capable of consistently winning seats in the national legislature, including the Scottish National Party and two left-of-center parties: the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats.Â
The multiparty nature of the system makes it possible that no one wins a majority in the House of Commons. This has happened twice this century and is called a "hung Parliament." However, current opinion polling suggests the opposition will win a healthy majority, with forecasts predicting anywhere from 394 to 475 seats for leader Keir Starmer's Labour Party.Â
How does the snap election affect things? In contrast to American presidential elections, the U.K.'s elections happen very quickly. When a snap election is called, it starts a clock of 25 working days from the king's official dissolution of Parliament to the election. The decision to hold an election dissolves Parliament after a short period known as the washup, when members can take care of any last-minute business.Â
The most pressing issue in the election is the economy, which remains sluggish compared to other advanced democracies. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, the U.K. has experienced higher inflation and slower growth than most countries in the Eurozone. That, combined with high interest rates, has put the electorate in a sour mood. Whether they will ultimately toss the Conservatives out, though, is up to voters on July 4. |