The Week Evening Review
Tariffs' effect on inflation, Trump's Middle East tour, and the Rockies' terrible season

 
Talking Points

Why tariffs haven't yet driven inflation

Remember a few weeks ago, when economic analysts predicted President Donald Trump's tariffs would spike inflation and maybe even cause a severe recession? It's not working out that way — at least not yet.

Prices in April rose at an "unexpectedly slow pace," said Politico. The latest Consumer Price Index from the government offered a "boost" to Trump and his "aggressive trade policies," showing the smallest cost-of-living increase since 2021. Although Walmart said yesterday it would raise some prices due to tariffs, the overall effect of Trump's policies was "somewhat less widespread than I had expected," said Inflation Insights' Omair Sharif. 

Two things seem true, said Eric Levitz at Vox. Trump's policies are "still poised to raise prices and slow growth." But the likelihood of a "severe" disruption has "fallen significantly." 

Pre-stocking the shelves
This resilience is partly thanks to U.S. companies stocking up on inventory before the tariffs went into effect. What you see on shelves is "based on agreements that were made two to three months ago," said Morgan Stanley's Michael Gapen to The Wall Street Journal. Businesses pushed their uncertainty into the future, but Americans "can't take a lot of comfort in this report," said Andy Schneider, an economist at BNP Paribas.

"Not all price drops are created equal," said Matt Egan at CNN. Eggs, clothes and used cars all saw price declines in April. But that might actually be a sign of a "weakening economy." Widespread wariness has led to "fragile demand," forcing some companies to "lower their prices to lure customers." 

Uncertainty looms
The latest inflation data is likely the "calm before Trump's tariff storm," said Stephen Bartholomeusz at The Sydney Morning Herald. The real fallout of the president's trade wars "probably won't start to surface until next month" and will not be fully reflected in the data until the second half of 2025. "The problems have not shown up yet, but sky-high tariffs will "inevitably flow through to higher inflation and lower growth."

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has made clear that he still expects tariffs to "slow growth and boost inflation," said CNBC. This means the Fed will keep interest rates higher as the economy "changes and policy is in flux."

 
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY

'The America I've sung to you about for 50 years is real and, regardless of its faults, is a great country with a great people. So we'll survive this moment.'

Bruce Springsteen reflecting on the state of the nation with Trump in office while opening his "Land of Hope and Dreams" tour in Manchester, England, after denouncing the administration for trampling on civil rights and workers, abandoning allies and siding with dictators

 
 
IN THE SPOTLIGHT

Trump touts ambiguous 'deals' from Mideast trip

President Donald Trump's trip to the Middle East featured bombastic proclamations of deals done and progress made, even as the details for many of the president's talking points remain unclear. He returns home this week after the high-profile, high-stakes tour that had him visit multiple Arab nations. Replete with splashy photo-ops and a roster of notable cameos, Trump stopped in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, skipping typical stops in allied nations like Israel and Turkey. 

'Investments' over geopolitical strategy
Trump's tour was "marked by pomp, opulent receptions" and "announcements of business deals with wealthy gulf states," said The New York Times. The "stated focus" of Trump's trip was "trade and investment," The Economist said. The multi-billion dollar deals debuting alongside regional leaders "make for good headlines," even if "large chunks turn out to be illusory." Saudi Arabia, for instance, is "probably serious" about its investments in AI and sports but "may be less committed" to a $140 billion arms deal.

The "optics" of Trump's visits helped showcase the "larger-than-life opulence of the region's richest petro-states," said CNBC, while demonstrating the extent to which those same nations want to "deepen their ties with the U.S. and advance their own economic agendas." Eschewing stops in Israel and Turkey, Trump's trip showed that his "loftiest targets — resolving the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine — remain elusive," NBC News said.

Fuzzy math on investment claims
There is "some doubt" about whether the numbers touted by Trump regarding his various overseas deals are "realistic" given the oil market and "weaker revenue for crude-producing countries," CNBC said. Despite Trump's claims that he'd "secured more than $2 trillion in investment agreements" during his tour, "at least" half a dozen of the deals listed by the White House from this trip were announced "before Trump even took office," said The Washington Post. 

Trump "needs good headlines" lately, Al Jazeera said. "Tariffs are kicking in" and Trump's promise to lower costs for Americans presents "a little bit of a problem" for the White House — hence his emphasis on deals and investments when he returned from the Middle East.

 
 

Statistic of the day

2: The number of daily hours spent scrolling on screens that it takes to double a teenager's risk of elevated anxiety levels, according to a study from Canada's Western University. The study also found that 45% of teenagers reported heightened levels of anxiety regardless of screen time.

 
 
the explainer

Have the Rockies reached a breaking point?

Baseball's single-season loss record, long held by the 1962 New York Mets, stood for more than 60 years until it was broken last year by the Chicago White Sox. But the new low might last only a year. At 7-36, the Colorado Rockies are now off to the worst 43-game start in the sport's modern history. The team will have to improve significantly to avoid a history-making disaster.

How bad have the Rockies been?
Random bursts of bad luck can add up quickly in baseball. But the underlying data and metrics show that the Rockies have mostly earned their miserable record. They had the "second-worst run differential through 40 games since 1900," said ESPN. They've been bad as both hosts and visitors. "The Rockies are 2-20 on the road" and "have lost all 14 series this season," said Yahoo Sports.

They are also near the bottom in both raw offensive totals — ranking 29th out of 30 in the sport with just 3.29 runs scored per game — as well as measures that adjust for Denver's ballpark effects, like OPS+, which ranks the Rockies' hitters dead last in baseball. The team currently features just two regulars who have performed better than the league average. Even in comparison to last year's White Sox, the Rockies are "worse. Maybe a lot worse," said Fangraphs.

What is the outlook for the team?
The Rockies are widely regarded as the worst-run franchise in baseball. "As an organization," the Rockies are "utterly clueless," said Yahoo Sports. This is "perhaps the most insular organization in baseball," said Sports Illustrated. "They don't make trades," and the team's "major league development is poor."

Not all the news is bad. Thanks in part to a strong bullpen, FanGraphs" projects them playing close to .400 ball the rest of the way," which would "help them avoid the fate of the White Sox," said ESPN. But overall, it is clear that the Rockies "need to turn things around, and in a hurry, if the wrong kind of history is to be averted," said Fox Sports.

 
 

Good day 🌳

… for tree-lined neighborhoods. People who live in greener areas smoke and drink less on average, according to a new study led by England's University of Exeter. Those living in the greenest neighborhoods were 13% less likely to be smokers and 31% less likely to drink alcohol every day than those in less green areas.

 
 

Bad day 🚉

… for New Jersey commuters. Engineers at New Jersey Transit, the nation's third-largest commuter rail service, went on strike Friday after negotiations between the service and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen failed. The strike will "severely inconvenience some 100,000 daily rail commuters" and fans of Shakira and Beyoncé who have planned concerts at MetLife Stadium in the coming days. 

 
 
Picture of the day

Shouldering the burden

Portugal's Prime Minister Luis Montenegro flashes a V for victory sign during a street rally in Lisbon, ahead of Sunday's general election. The Democratic Alliance leader called the snap vote — Portugal's third in as many years — three years ahead of schedule after failing to win a confidence vote in March.
Patricia de Melo Moreira / AFP / Getty Images

 
 
Puzzles

Test your general knowledge with The Week's daily crossword, part of our puzzles section, which also includes sudoku and codewords

 
 
The Week recommends

It always feels good to bring a gift for the host as a show of thanks when going to someone's home for a party or to spend the weekend. These items are perfect for recipients to use while entertaining but can also be enjoyed when they have the house all to themselves.

Brass Monkey Incredibly Pointless Trivia game
Having a game at the ready keeps guests entertained at any stage of a party and especially comes in handy when the host is finishing dinner or otherwise occupied. Incredibly Pointless Trivia is amusing and keeps you on your toes, as the questions are "meant to slightly mislead you on the answer," MarthaStewart.com said. ($14, Amazon)

Solo Stove Cinder tabletop bowl
Anyone who entertains outside will appreciate this "compact" fire bowl, which is "perfect for backyard and patio settings," said Food & Wine. It uses smokeless gel fuel, and one canister offers three hours of flame time. Present it along with a box of graham crackers, bag of marshmallows and chocolate bars for s'mores. ($40, Solo Stove)

Uncommon Goods reversible serving stand and platter
It's a cake stand — no wait, it's for chips and dip. This flexible piece can be used for both. One side of the cleverly designed, handblown glass dish is a platter, and when you flip it over, there is a bowl for sauces or dips and space to place chips, crackers or vegetables. ($70, Uncommon Goods)

 
 

Poll watch

About two-thirds (68%) of Americans say gender is determined by someone's sex assigned at birth, according to an AP-NORC survey. In the poll of 1,175 adults, 89% of Republicans said gender is determined by birth sex compared to only 44% of Democrats, who are more likely to feel someone's gender identity can differ from their sex at birth.

 
 
INSTANT OPINION

Today's best commentary

'How the rich and powerful destroyed free speech'
Eric Reinhart at The Nation
Billionaires have "turned appeals to free speech into a tool for consolidating power, masking their expanding control over politics," says Eric Reinhart. They have "slowly bought control" of a "broad array of key civic institutions" like news media and elite universities. Free speech is "often framed as a universal good and an inalienable democratic right." But "concepts do not simply exist." We "must look past debates about what free speech means and instead examine what free speech discourse currently does."

'It's time for America to walk away completely from Ukraine-Russia'
Anthony J. Constantini at The American Conservative
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has "put himself in an impossible situation: Accepting the loss of about 20% of Ukraine's territory would effectively end his political career," says Anthony J. Constantini. Trump is "not responsible for Zelenskyy having put himself in such a difficult political position." It is "abundantly clear that neither side is interested in truly ending the war." It's "time to walk away entirely so long as Russia and Ukraine remain unable to compromise and articulate a mutually acceptable vision."

'What Netflix's "Adolescence" misses about girl-centered violence prevention'
Ann Muno at the Chicago Tribune
Netflix's "Adolescence" joins a "growing trend of true crime entertainment obsessing over perpetrators while rendering victims nearly invisible," says Ann Muno. The "series misses half the story — the murdered girl's." By "neglecting her perspective, it fails to shine a light on the prevention work that could have saved her life." Our "culture's fascination with male violence consistently overshadows the experiences of female victims and their families." We "exhaustively analyze killers while treating victims as plot devices."

 
 
WORD OF THE DAY

aeronutrients

Nutrients that can be absorbed from the air we breathe, according to a pair of Australian scientists who suggest that while it is nowhere near enough to live on, we may derive some benefit from airborne nutrients. Whether these nutrients make a significant contribution to our health isn't yet clear, but "one day, nutrition guidelines may recommend inhaling nutrients," said Flávia Fayet-Moore, a nutrition scientist, at The Conversation.

 
 

Evening Review was written and edited by Theara Coleman, David Faris, Catherine Garcia, Scott Hocker, Anya Jaremko-Greenwold, Justin Klawans, Joel Mathis, Summer Meza, Rafi Schwartz and Anahi Valenzuela, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly and Julia Wytrazek.

Image credits, from top: Illustration by Julia Wytrazek / Getty Images; Win McNamee / Getty Images; Sam Hodde / Getty Images; YakubovAlim / Getty Images