For years, President Donald Trump has framed immigrants in the U.S. as dangerous threats to American citizens for which the only solution is prison, deportation or some combination thereof. But while he has spent the bulk of his second term making good on his campaign promise of mass immigrant arrests and expulsions, analysis of the data from these operations may seriously challenge the administration’s anti-migrant narrative.
Skyrocketing arrests but few criminal records Although immigration enforcement actions have netted the Trump administration “thousands of arrests,” the Department of Homeland Security’s operations have been “less effective” at detaining migrants with criminal records than “routine operations elsewhere,” said The New York Times. In Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations in Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and across Massachusetts, “half of those arrested had no criminal record, compared with a third of immigrants arrested nationwide.”
The Deportation Data Project analyzed “every ICE arrest, detainer request, and book-in to detention between Sept. 1, 2023, and Oct.15, 2025.” Those records showed that only a “very small share” had a violent criminal background. “More than half” of detainees were people with “only civil immigration violations,” said CBS News.
In Washington, D.C., the president declared a “crime emergency” as justification for his mid-August deployments, said The Washington Post. But from August through mid-October, D.C. saw “more than a sixfold increase” in arrests of immigrants “without any criminal record at all.”
‘Arbitrary arrest quotas’ “Nearly three-quarters” of ICE detainees were booked into federal custody despite having “no prior criminal conviction,” according to “nonpublic” ICE data leaked to the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, said The Independent. Cato’s data is “so dumb” and “made up,” said Homeland Security Public Affairs official Tricia McLaughlin on X.
But the new tranche of statistics from the Deportation Data Project “refutes DHS’ response and vindicates our report’s conclusions,” said Cato’s David J. Bier in an article on the Institute’s website. While ICE, with its newly supercharged budget, could “track down” the nearly half a million immigrants it claims “have criminal convictions and are removable,” the agency instead “prefers to grab easy targets” to meet “arbitrary arrest quotas.” |